Simulated effect of tobacco tax variation on Latino health in California
Simulated effect of tobacco tax variation on Latino health in California
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DOI：
10.1016/s0749-3797(01)00368-3
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发表时间：
2001-11-01
影响因子：
5.5
通讯作者：
Kaplan, RM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Emery, S;Ake, CF;Kaplan, RM
背景资料：1999年，超过四分之一的加州人口是拉丁裔，到2015年，拉丁裔预计将成为加州最大的单一族裔群体。拉丁裔吸烟者的吸烟模式和尼古丁依赖可能与其他种族群体的吸烟者有很大不同。此外，拉丁裔吸烟者可能对香烟价格更敏感。因此，影响增加香烟消费税石油拉丁美洲人吸烟的流行可能是相当大的，因此对拉丁美洲人的健康的影响可能是proportionally大于对人口健康一般。方法：我们模拟了拉丁裔吸烟率，发病率，死亡率，和质量调整生命年（Qs），这将导致一系列的实际和拟议的香烟消费税-使用一系列针对拉丁裔吸烟者的卷烟价格弹性估计来增加税收。Monte Carlo模拟被用来产生置信区间。结果：假设一个拉丁美洲人的价格弹性的需求为香烟的-1.0，减少拉丁美洲人吸烟导致额外的0.50美元/包税将产生近3000拉丁美洲QALOS在加州在1999年。更大的利益将每年累积，直到一个稳定的状态相对于人口规模达到75年后，该计划initiated.Conclusions：如果拉丁裔吸烟者更敏感的卷烟价格比其他吸烟者的变化，拉丁裔吸烟者也站在获得不成比例的份额的健康利益，从消费税的增加。
Background: Over one fourth of the California population was Latino in 1999, and by 2015 Latinos are expected to be the single largest ethnic group in California. Patterns of smoking and nicotine dependence among Latino smokers may be quite different from those of smokers in other ethnic groups. In addition, Latino smokers may be more sensitive to cigarette prices. Therefore, the effect of an increase in cigarette excise taxes oil Latino smoking prevalence may be quite large, and consequently the impact on Latino health may be proportionately greater than on population health in general.Methods: We simulated changes in Latino smoking, morbidity, mortality, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) that would result from a range of actual and proposed cigarette excise-tax increases using a range of cigarette price-elasticity estimates specific to Latino smokers. Monte Carlo simulation was used to generate confidence intervals.Results: Assuming a Latino price elasticity of demand for cigarettes of -1.0, reductions in Latino smoking resulting from an additional $0.50/pack tax would produce nearly 3000 Latino QALYs in California in 1999. Greater benefits would accrue each year, until a steady state relative to population size is reached 75 years after the program is initiated.Conclusions: If Latino smokers are more responsive to changes in cigarette prices than other smokers, Latino smokers also stand to gain a disproportionate share of the health benefit from an excise tax increase.