Evaluation of birth cohort patterns in population disease rates.
Evaluation of birth cohort patterns in population disease rates.
复制标题
人口疾病发生率出生队列模式的评估。
DOI：
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发表时间：
1996
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
K. Chu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Tarone;K. Chu
由于缺乏一套独特的参数来指定任何给定的模型，使用传统的年龄-时期-队列分析来解释疾病率的趋势变得困难。由于年龄-时期-队列模型固有的困难，出生队列效应或日历时期效应的线性趋势的大小和方向都不能明确确定。这导致在根据出生队列或日历期趋势进行疾病病因推断时存在相当大的不确定性。在本文中，作者表明，在长期趋势的方向或幅度的变化可以明确地确定在年龄段队列分析，他们提供了参数方法来评估这种变化的趋势在通常的泊松回归框架。这些变化可能对疾病病因学有重要意义。这是证明在应用程序中提出的方法来调查出生队列的女性乳腺癌死亡率的趋势，从国家卫生统计中心为美国（1970-1989年）和世界卫生组织为日本（1955-1979年）。
Interpretation of trends in disease rates using conventional age-period-cohort analyses is made difficult by the lack of a unique set of parameters specifying any given model. Because of difficulties inherent in age-period-cohort models, neither the magnitude nor the direction of a linear trend in birth cohort effects or calendar period effects can be determined unambiguously. This leads to considerable uncertainty in making inferences regarding disease etiology based on birth cohort or calendar period trends. In this paper, the authors demonstrate that changes in the direction or magnitude of long term trends can be identified unequivocally in age-period-cohort analyses, and they provide parametric methods for evaluating such changes in trend within the usual Poisson regression framework. Such changes can have important implications for disease etiology. This is demonstrated in applications of the proposed methods to the investigation of birth cohort trends in female breast cancer mortality rates obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics for the United States (1970-1989) and from the World Health Organization for Japan (1955-1979).