Temperature dependence of germination and growth in Anthurium (Araceae).
Temperature dependence of germination and growth in Anthurium (Araceae).
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DOI：
10.1111/plb.13063
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发表时间：
2020-03
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
G. Zotz;Niels Kappert;Lilian-Lee B Müller;K. Wagner
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Zotz;Niels Kappert;Lilian-Lee B Müller;K. Wagner
预计到2100年，高纬度地区的气温将上升约6 °C，热带地区的气温将上升约3 °C。尽管热带地区的增加幅度较小，但后果可能更为严重，因为热带物种的气候生态位通常被认为相当狭窄，这是由于高度的气候稳定性和较高的生态位专门化。然而，支持这一观点的严格数据很少。我们选择了巨大多样性的红掌属（天南星科）的研究。考虑到一个物种的更新生态位是至关重要的整体生态位宽度，我们专注于发芽和早期生长沿着温度范围内的15个红掌物种，并比较了热生态位宽度（TNB）与温度条件下，在当前范围内，从发生记录建模。令人惊讶的是，3 °C的增加将导致发芽的TNB和模拟的原位温度条件的更大重叠，而在当前和未来条件下生长的TNB与原位条件的重叠在统计上是不可区分的。我们的结论是，未来的温度往往更接近大多数物种的热最佳。这是否真的导致性能的提高取决于其他非生物和生物因素，最突出的是可能改变降水模式。
By the year 2100, temperatures are predicted to increase by about 6 °C at higher latitudes and about 3 °C in the tropics. In spite of the smaller increase in the tropics, consequences may be more severe because the climatic niches of tropical species are generally assumed to be rather narrow due to a high degree of climatic stability and higher niche specialization. However, rigorous data to back up this notion are rare. We chose the megadiverse genus Anthurium (Araceae) for study. Considering that the regeneration niche of a species is crucial for overall niche breadth we focused on the response of germination and early growth along a temperature range of 24 °C of 15 Anthurium species and compared the thermal niche breadth (TNB) with the temperature conditions in their current range, modelled from occurrence records. Surprisingly, an increase of 3 °C would lead to a larger overlap of TNB of germination and modelled in situ temperature conditions, while the overlap of TNB of growth with in situ conditions under current and future conditions is statistically indistinguishable. We conclude that future temperatures tend to be closer to the thermal optima of most species. Whether this really leads to an increase in performance depends on other abiotic and biotic factors, most prominently potentially changing precipitation patterns.