Trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections pose a correlated risk to agriculture
Trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections pose a correlated risk to agriculture
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DOI：
10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.07.023
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发表时间：
2018-11-15
影响因子：
6.2
通讯作者：
Cane, Mark
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Anderson, Weston;Seager, Richard;Cane, Mark
厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO）是气候年际变化的主要来源。ENSO生命周期和相关的遥相关在全球范围内多年演变。这项分析是第一次尝试，以表征跨太平洋ENSO遥相关对大太平洋盆地区域作物生产的风险结构，在这项分析中，我们确定了大规模的ENSO遥相关大气动力学，影响玉米，小麦和大豆生长季节的热量和水分胁迫。我们提出了一个连贯的框架，以了解跨太平洋ENSO遥相关如何对美洲主要农业带的作物产量构成相关风险，澳大利亚和中国在一个ENSO生命周期的过程中，使用观测和作物开花季节气候异常的多模式集合。（但不总是）在美洲的主要产区和中国北方或澳大利亚的主要产区之间抵消。厄尔尼诺现象往往会在美国和南美洲东南部创造良好的玉米和大豆生长条件，但在中国北方、墨西哥南部和巴西的塞拉多却会创造恶劣的生长条件。在拉尼娜期间，情况正好相反。南美洲东南部的小麦生长条件通常与澳大利亚相反。此外，多年的拉尼娜现象可能会迫使阿根廷和澳大利亚出现多年的生长季节异常。大多数与农作物开花季节相关的ENSO遥相关都是单一跨太平洋环流异常的结果，该异常在北半球夏季发展并持续到第二年春天。在发展中的ENSO事件的夏末秋初，热带太平洋迫使北方中纬度地区的大气异常，从北方中国到北美的太平洋和从澳大利亚到南美洲东南部的南部中纬度地区。这一异常现象与美国、墨西哥和中国的大豆和玉米生长季节以及阿根廷、巴西南部和澳大利亚的小麦生长季节直接相关。ENSO事件在北方冬季达到高峰，此时大气环流异常加剧并影响南美洲东南部的玉米和大豆。随着事件的衰减，ENSO引起的环流异常在中国和美国的小麦开花季节持续存在。
The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of interannual climate variability. ENSO life cycles and the associated teleconnections evolve over multiple years at a global scale. This analysis is the first attempt to characterize the structure of the risk posed by trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections to crop production in the greater Pacific Basin region.In this analysis we identify the large-scale atmospheric dynamics of ENSO teleconnections that affect heat and moisture stress during the growing seasons of maize, wheat and soy. We propose a coherent framework for understanding how trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections pose a correlated risk to crop yields in major agricultural belts of the Americas, Australia and China over the course of an ENSO life cycle by using observations and a multi-model ensemble of climate anomalies during crop flowering seasons.Trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections are often (but not always) offsetting between major producing regions in the Americas and those in northern China or Australia. El Ninos tend to create good maize and soybean growing conditions in the US and southeast South America, but poor growing conditions in northern China, southern Mexico and the Cerrado in Brazil. The opposite is true during La Nina. Wheat growing conditions in southeast South America generally have the opposite sign of those in Australia. Furthermore, multi-year La Ninos can force multi-year growing season anomalies in Argentina and Australia.Most ENSO teleconnections relevant for crop flowering seasons are the result of a single trans-Pacific circulation anomaly that develops in boreal summer and persists through the following spring. During the late summer and early fall of a developing ENSO event, the tropical Pacific forces an atmospheric anomaly in the northern midlatitudes that spans the Pacific from northern China to North America and in the southern midlatitudes from Australia to southeast South America. This anomaly directly links the soybean and maize growing seasons of the US, Mexico and China and the wheat growing seasons of Argentina, southern Brazil and Australia. The ENSO event peaks in boreal winter, when the atmospheric circulation anomalies intensify and affect maize and soybeans in southeast South America. As the event decays, the ENSO-induced circulation anomalies persist through the wheat flowering seasons in China and the US.