The dynamics of poverty transitions in Mexico
The dynamics of poverty transitions in Mexico
复制标题
墨西哥贫困转变的动态
DOI：
10.1108/ijse-04-2015-0084
复制
发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Gabriela Morales
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jennifer Fernández;Ana K. Garcia;Jorge Garza;Gabriela Morales
目的
超过一半的墨西哥人生活在贫困中。虽然有许多关于墨西哥贫困的研究，但很少有关于贫困动态的研究。本文的目的是衡量墨西哥的长期和短暂的贫困，并分析其决定因素。
设计/方法/方式
基于法术的方法，过渡矩阵估计和多项逻辑回归分析进行了调查的各种社会经济和人口变量对贫困的动态的影响。
结果
调查发现，36%的家庭长期贫困，64%的家庭暂时贫困。结果表明，与长期贫困直接相关的变量是属于少数民族群体、生活在农村地区、家庭人口多、家中老年人和儿童比例高以及女户主。受教育程度高、资产多、户主年龄大、家中有无饮用水和电，都是与脱贫概率呈正相关的变量。
独创性/价值
据作者所知，这是第一次使用咒语方法对整个墨西哥而不仅仅是城市地区的贫困动态进行研究。这项工作的价值在于，它估计了墨西哥的长期和暂时贫困及其可能的决定因素。研究结果可用于政府设计和实施公共政策，以减轻墨西哥的长期和短暂的贫困。
Purpose
More than half of the Mexican population lives in poverty. While there are many studies about poverty in Mexico, there are very few about the dynamics of poverty. The purpose of this paper is to measure chronic and transient poverty in Mexico and to analyze its determinants.
Design/methodology/approach
Based on the spells approach, a transition matrix was estimated and a multinomial logistic regression analysis was conducted to investigate the effects of various socioeconomic and demographic variables upon the dynamics of poverty.
Findings
It was found that 36 percent of households are chronically poor and 64 percent are transiently poor. The results show that variables directly related to chronic poverty are belonging to an ethnic minority group, living in a rural area, a large family size, having a high percentage of older adults and children in the household and having a female household head. Having more education, having more assets, the age of the household head and having access to potable water and electricity in the household are variables positively related with the probability of escaping poverty.
Originality/value
To the authors knowledge, this is the first study on the dynamics of poverty using the spells approach for Mexico as a whole, not just for urban areas. The value of this work is that it estimates chronic and transitory poverty in Mexico as well as their possible determinants. The study findings can be used by the government to design and implement public policies to alleviate both chronic and transient poverty in Mexico.