Potential effects of climatic change on some western Canadian forests, based on phenological enhancements to a patch model of forest succession
Potential effects of climatic change on some western Canadian forests, based on phenological enhancements to a patch model of forest succession
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基于森林演替斑块模型物候增强的气候变化对加拿大西部森林的潜在影响
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发表时间：
1995
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
S. Cumming
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作者：
P. Burton;S. Cumming
我们增强了森林斑块模型Zelig，以探索2×CO2气候变化情景对不列颠哥伦比亚省和加拿大阿尔伯塔省几个森林地区的影响。除了在基于个体的森林林分动态模型中常见的过程和现象外，我们还增加了一些特定物种的物候学和特定地点的霜冻事件。考虑萌芽热总和的要求，生长季节的限制，诱导休眠和抗寒性的低温要求略有提高Zelig预测目前的组成的能力。对未来气候状况的预测影响的模拟（根据四种大气环流模式的平均预测）包括平衡森林组成和生产力的一些重大变化。预计低地温带沿海森林将受到严重压力，因为土著物种将不再满足其冬季寒冷的要求。预计高海拔沿海森林的生产力将增加，而内陆亚高山森林的生产力预计将保持稳定，但将逐渐被目前具有低海拔特征的物种所取代。不列颠哥伦比亚省南部的干旱内陆低海拔森林可能会保持相对不变，而潮湿的内陆森林预计将支持产量的大幅增加，主要是西部铁杉。预计北方内陆亚寒带森林也将通过促进黑松的生长而提高生产力。相反，在公元前东北部的真正的北方森林中，云杉林的急剧崩溃预计将与生产力下降有关，因为它们被松树物种所取代。在阿尔伯塔的北方-科迪勒纳和潮湿的北方混交林不太可能发生成分变化，而变得更有生产力。我们相信这些模型的改进是对现有公式的重大改进，但由此产生的预测仍然必须谨慎看待。模型限制包括：（1）目前的气候模式无法预测未来每月温度和降水量的变化;（2）关于几个重要树种的物候行为的信息很少;（3）对不同的次优气候事件对生长的限制程度了解不足。
We enhanced the forest patch model, Zelig, to explore the implications of 2×CO2 climate change scenarios on several forest regions in British Columbia and Alberta, Canada. In addition to the processes and phenomena commonly represented in individual-based models of forest stand dynamics, we added some species-specific phenology and site-specific frost events. The consideration of bud-break heat sum requirements, growing season limits, and chilling requirements for the induction of dormancy and cold hardiness slightly improved the ability of Zelig to predict the present composition of B.C. forests. Simulations of the predicted effects of future climatic regimes (based on the averaged predictions of four general circulation models) include some major shifts in equilibrial forest composition and productivity. Lowland temperate coastal forests are predicted to be severely stressed because indigenous species will no longer have their winter chilling requirements met. High-elevation coastal forests are expected to increase in productivity, while interior subalpine forests are expected to remain stable in productivity but will gradually be replaced by species currently characteristic of lower elevations. Dry, interior low-elevation forests in southern B.C. are likely to persist relatively unchanged, while wet interior forests are expected to support dramatic increases in yield, primarily by western hemlock. Northern interior sub-boreal forests are likewise expected to increase in productivity through enhanced growth of lodgepole pine. Conversely, the precipitous collapse of spruce stands in the true boreal forests of northeastern B.C. is expected to be associated with reduced productivity as they are replaced by pine species. Boreal-Cordilleran and Moist Boreal Mixedwood forests in Alberta are less likely to undergo compositional change, while becoming somewhat more productive. We believe these model enhancements to be a significant improvement over existing formulations, but the resulting predictions must still be viewed with caution. Model limitations include: (1) the current inability of climate models to predict future variation in monthly temperature and precipitation; (2) sparse information on the phenological behaviour of several important tree species; and (3) a poor understanding of the degree to which growth is constrained by different suboptimal climatic events.