Modeling strategic objectives and behavior in the transition of the energy Sector to inform policymaking
Modeling strategic objectives and behavior in the transition of the energy Sector to inform policymaking
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DOI：
10.1016/j.tej.2021.107009
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发表时间：
2021-10
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
F. Felder;Burcin Unel;Y. Dvorkin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
F. Felder;Burcin Unel;Y. Dvorkin
将能源部门转变为零排放或净零排放温室气体（GHG）并大幅减少其他污染物是一项大规模、昂贵和长期的努力。能源脱碳的典型起点和核心是电力部门。该行业是温室气体的直接排放大户。它已经有许多技术上的、无碳排放的替代方案，这些替代方案的资本和运营成本正在迅速下降，性能也在不断提高，使电力成为最便宜、最容易获得的脱碳能源载体。本文探讨了建模社区应该做些什么来告知这种转变。本文的基础前提是，决策者真正希望从建模社区了解他们的选择范围、他们实现各种目标的能力以及可能的意外结果。由于建模社区的目标是帮助为政策制定提供信息，因此他们听到决策者的需求是很重要的，无论是经济、技术还是社会目标。
Transitioning the energy sector to zero or net-zero emission of greenhouse gasses (GHG) and substantially reducing other pollutants is a massive, costly, and long-term effort. The typical starting point and centerpiece of energy decarbonization is the electric power sector. The sector is a large direct GHG emitter. It already has many technological, non-carbon emitting alternatives that are rapidly declining in capital and operating costs and improving in performance, making electricity the least expensive and accessible energy carrier to decarbonize. This paper explores what the modeling community should do to inform this transition. The underpinning premise of this paper is that policymakers genuinely want to be informed from the modeling community about their range of options, their ability to achieve various objectives, and possible unintended outcomes. Since the goal of the modeling community is to help inform policymaking, it is important that they hear the needs of policymakers, be it economic, technological, or social goals.