Measuring risk perceptions: what does the excessive use of 50% mean?
Measuring risk perceptions: what does the excessive use of 50% mean?
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DOI：
10.1177/0272989x11404077
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发表时间：
2012-03
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Carman KG
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bruine de Bruin W;Carman KG
风险认知是良好健康决策的核心。人们可以判断有效的概率，但不成比例地使用50%。我们假设50%比其他回答更有可能反映不知道的概率，特别是在教育程度低和算术能力差的人中，并评估了引发“不知道”解释的有用性。受访者（n=1020）判断未来10年“生存”或“死亡”的概率，表明他们是否给出了一个很好的估计或不知道的机会。他们完成了人口统计学、病史和算术问题。总的来说，50%比其他概率更有可能被解释为“不知道”（相对于“一个很好的估计”）。使用50%与低教育和算术的相关性通过表达“不知道”来介导。被解释为“不知道”的生存和死亡的判断概率与年龄，疾病和专家访问的相关性较低。在判断风险时，50%可能反映出不知道概率，特别是在计算能力和教育程度较低的人中。表示为“不知道”的可能性不太有效。引出不确定性可能有益于理论模型和教育工作。
Risk perceptions are central to good health decisions. People can judge valid probabilities, but use 50% disproportionately. We hypothesized that 50% is more likely than other responses to reflect not knowing the probability, especially among individuals with low education and numeracy, and evaluated the usefulness of eliciting “don’t know” explanations. Respondents (n=1020) judged probabilities for “living” or “dying” in the next 10 years, indicating whether they gave a good estimate or did not know the chances. They completed demographics, medical history, and numeracy questions. Overall, 50% was more likely than other probabilities to be explained as “don’t know” (vs. “a good estimate.”) Correlations of using 50% with low education and numeracy were mediated by expressing “don’t know.” Judged probabilities for survival and mortality explained as “don’t know” had lower correlations with age, diseases, and specialist visits. When judging risks, 50% may reflect not knowing the probability, especially among individuals with low numeracy and education. Probabilities expressed as “don’t know” are less valid. Eliciting uncertainty could benefit theoretical models and educational efforts.