A definition of causal effect for epidemiological research
A definition of causal effect for epidemiological research
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DOI：
10.1136/jech.2002.006361
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发表时间：
2004-04-01
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Hern치n, MA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hern치n, MA
许多流行病学研究的目标是估计某种暴露对某种结果的因果影响。本文回顾了因果效应的正式定义，这类研究。为简单起见，主要描述仅限于二分变量，并假设不存在归因于抽样变异性的随机误差。附录提供了一个讨论抽样变异性和概括这一因果关系的理论。关联和因果关系之间的区别进行了描述-冗余的表达“因果效应”是在整个文章中使用，以避免混淆与一个共同使用的“效果”的意思是简单的统计关联-并显示为什么，在理论上，随机化允许因果效应的估计，而无需进一步的假设。文章最后讨论了随机研究的局限性。这些局限性就是为什么需要从观测数据中进行因果推断的方法的原因。
Estimating the causal effect of some exposure on some outcome is the goal of many epidemiological studies. This article reviews a formal definition of causal effect for such studies. For simplicity, the main description is restricted to dichotomous variables and assumes that no random error attributable to sampling variability exists. The appendix provides a discussion of sampling variability and a generalisation of this causal theory. The difference between association and causation is described - the redundant expression "causal effect" is used throughout the article to avoid confusion with a common use of "effect" meaning simply statistical association - and shows why, in theory, randomisation allows the estimation of causal effects without further assumptions. The article concludes with a discussion on the limitations of randomised studies. These limitations are the reason why methods for causal inference from observational data are needed.