SENSITIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF COMPLEX-MODELS OF DISEASE TRANSMISSION - AN HIV MODEL, AS AN EXAMPLE
SENSITIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF COMPLEX-MODELS OF DISEASE TRANSMISSION - AN HIV MODEL, AS AN EXAMPLE
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DOI：
10.2307/1403510
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发表时间：
1994-08-01
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
DOWLATABADI, H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
BLOWER, SM;DOWLATABADI, H
HIV 传播模型已变得非常复杂。其中一些模型的行为只能通过不确定性和敏感性分析来探索，因为模型的结构复杂性与估计输入参数值时的高度不确定性相结合。不确定性分析可用于评估由于估计输入值的不确定性而导致的结果变量的变异性（预测不精确性）。敏感性分析可以通过确定哪些参数对预测不精确性产生重要影响（即输入参数值的变化如何改变结果变量的值）来扩展不确定性分析。本文描述并应用了不确定性和敏感性分析；这两种分析均基于拉丁超立方采样 (LHS) 方案，该方案是 McKay、Conover 和 Beckman (1979) 提出的极其有效的采样设计。本文描述的方法之前尚未应用于疾病传播的确定性模型，尽管这些模型与策略旨在研究的风险评估模型具有许多共同特征。通过分析 HIV 传播的复杂确定性模型，说明了 LHS 不确定性和 LHS/PRC（拉丁超立方采样/部分秩相关）敏感性分析技术的实用性。
HIV transmission models have become very complex. The behavior of some of these models may only be explored by uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, because the structural complexity of the model are coupled with a high degree of uncertainty in estimating the values of the input parameters. Uncertainty analysis may be used to assess the variability (prediction imprecision) in the outcome variable that is due to the uncertainty in estimating the input values. A sensitivity analysis can extend an uncertainty analysis by identifying which parameters are important in contributing to the prediction imprecision (i.e., how do changes in the values of the input parameters alter the value of the outcome variable). In this paper an uncertainty and a sensitivity analysis are described and applied; both analyses are based upon the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) scheme, which is an extremely efficient sampling design proposed by McKay, Conover & Beckman (1979). The methods described in this paper have not previously been applied to deterministic models of disease transmission, although these models have many characteristics in common with the risk assessment models that the strategies were designed to investigate. The utility of the LHS uncertainty and the LHS/PRC (Latin Hypercube Sampling/Partial Rank Correlation) sensitivity analysis techniques are illustrated by analyzing a complex deterministic model of HIV transmission.