Climate change implications for irrigation and groundwater in the Republican River Basin, USA
Climate change implications for irrigation and groundwater in the Republican River Basin, USA
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-018-2278-z
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发表时间：
2018-10
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
G. Ou;F. Muñoz-Arriola;D. R. Uden;D. Martin;C. Allen;Nancy Shank
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Ou;F. Muñoz-Arriola;D. R. Uden;D. Martin;C. Allen;Nancy Shank
本研究调查了气候变化对地下水可用性的影响，从而在美国高平原含水层的政治边界灌溉。根据32个大气环流模式（GCM）的降尺度数据集预测降水和温度的变化，开发了一个回归模型来预测灌溉的变化。降水补给变化的计算与降水补给曲线的预测表示整个内布拉斯加州，科罗拉多州，堪萨斯地区和共和党河流域的焦点景观。灌溉补给的变化与灌溉的变化成比例。地下水对气候强迫的响应，然后使用MODFLOW地下水流模型模拟新的抽水和补给率。结果表明，地下水开采量和补给量都将增加，地下水开采的影响将盖过自然波动的影响。在基准线上有灌溉驱动下降趋势的地区，地下水水位将下降得更多。本研究的方法和预测可以为长期水资源规划和管理战略的设计提供信息，有助于避免和解决与水有关的冲突，实现灌溉的可持续性。
This study investigates the influence of climate change on groundwater availability, and thereby, irrigation across political boundaries within the US High Plains aquifer. A regression model is developed to predict changes in irrigation according to predicted changes in precipitation and temperature from a downscaled dataset of 32 general circulation models (GCMs). Precipitation recharge changes are calculated with precipitation-recharge curves developed for prognostic representations of precipitation across the Nebraska-Colorado-Kansas area and within the Republican River Basin focal landscape. Irrigation-recharge changes are scaled with changes in irrigation. The groundwater responses to climate forcings are then simulated under new pumping and recharge rates using a MODFLOW groundwater flow model. Results show that groundwater pumping and recharge both will increase and that the effects of groundwater pumping will overshadow those from natural fluctuations. Groundwater levels will decline more in areas with irrigation-driven decreasing trends in the baseline. The methodologies and predictions of this study can inform long-term water planning and the design of management strategies that help avoid and resolve water-related conflicts, enabling irrigation sustainability.