A hydro-economic model for the assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation in irrigated agriculture
A hydro-economic model for the assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation in irrigated agriculture
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolecon.2015.09.017
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发表时间：
2015-12-01
影响因子：
7
通讯作者：
Downing, Thomas E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Esteve, Paloma;Varela-Ortega, Consuelo;Downing, Thomas E.
最近的研究表明，气候变化具有多层面和多尺度的性质，这表明需要开发综合工具来分析影响和适应。这项研究提出了一个水文经济模型的中瓜迪亚纳盆地，西班牙，以评估气候变化对灌溉农业和适应方案的潜在影响。它结合了一个基于农场的经济优化模型与水文模型WEAP，并代表了社会经济，农艺和水文系统在空间上明确的方式，涵盖所有方面和规模有关的气候变化。模拟的情景包括一个到2070年的A2气候变化情景、两个基于政策的适应情景和自主适应。结果表明，气候变化可能会严重影响灌溉系统，减少水的供应和作物产量，并增加灌溉用水需求。农民面临的风险取决于技术和用水效率，但也取决于空间位置和邻近灌溉区的决策。对适应战略的分析强调了当前欧盟水政策在促进适应方面的作用。总体而言，应用框架证明是支持水和气候变化决策的有用工具。它有助于更好地了解气候变化的潜在影响、多尺度脆弱性和适应范围。(C)2015作者由爱思唯尔公司出版。这是一篇开放获取的文章，获得了CC BY-NC-ND许可证（http：//creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/）。
Recent research has demonstrated the multidimensional and multi-scalar nature of climate change, evidencing the need to develop integrated tools for the analysis of impacts and adaptation. This research presents a hydro-economic model of the Middle-Guadiana basin, Spain, to assess potential effects of climate change on irrigated agriculture and options for adaptation. It combines a farm-based economic optimisation model with the hydrologic model WEAP, and represents the socio-economic, agronomic and hydrologic systems in a spatially-explicit manner covering all dimensions and scales relevant to climate change. Simulated scenarios include a severe A2 climate change scenario up to 2070, two policy-based adaptation scenarios, and autonomous adaptation. Results show that climate change may impact severely irrigation systems reducing water availability and crop yields, and increasing irrigation water requirements. The risk faced by farmers is determined by technology and water use efficiency but also by spatial location and decisions made in neighbouring irrigation areas. The analysis of adaptation strategies underscores the role of current EU water policy in facilitating adaptation. Overall, the applied framework proved to be a useful tool for supporting water and climate change policy-making. It contributes to improve understanding about potential impacts of climate change, multi-scale vulnerability and the scope for adaptation. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).