Climate Variability and Dengue Fever in Warm and Humid Mexico
Climate Variability and Dengue Fever in Warm and Humid Mexico
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DOI：
10.4269/ajtmh.2011.10-0609
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发表时间：
2011-05-01
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Bentham, Graham
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Colon-Gonzalez, Felipe J.;Lake, Iain R.;Bentham, Graham
多元线性回归模型进行了拟合，以寻找登革热发病率变化与墨西哥温暖潮湿地区气候变异之间的关联。收集了墨西哥12个省23年（1985年1月至2007年12月）的数据。我们的研究结果表明，在厄尔尼诺事件期间和暖湿季节，感染的发病率或风险较高。我们提供的证据表明，登革热发病率与厄尔尼诺现象的强度和最低气温正相关，尤其是在凉爽和干燥的季节。我们的研究补充了对该地区登革热动态的了解，并可能对预警系统的发展有用。
Multiple linear regression models were fitted to look for associations between changes in the incidence rate of dengue fever and climate variability in the warm and humid region of Mexico. Data were collected for 12 Mexican provinces over a 23-year period (January 1985 to December 2007). Our results show that the incidence rate or risk of infection is higher during El Nino events and in the warm and wet season. We provide evidence to show that dengue fever incidence was positively associated with the strength of El Nino and the minimum temperature, especially during the cool and dry season. Our study complements the understanding of dengue fever dynamics in the region and may be useful for the development of early warning systems.