Uncertainty in CENTURY-modelled changes in soil organic carbon stock in the uplands of Northeast China, 1980–2050
Uncertainty in CENTURY-modelled changes in soil organic carbon stock in the uplands of Northeast China, 1980–2050
复制标题
1980-2050年东北高地土壤有机碳储量CENTURY模型变化的不确定性
DOI：
10.1007/s10705-018-9963-1
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发表时间：
2018-12
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Yu DS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu XY;Zhao YC;Shi XZ;Liu Y;Wang SH;Yu DS
基于过程的模型已成功应用于预测地块尺度土壤有机碳（SOC）的长期变化，但由于缺乏模型输入参数的空间明确信息，区域或国家外推仍然引入了相当大的不确定性。利用世纪模型预测了1980 ~ 2050年东北丘陵地区土壤有机碳的变化，并给出了与关键输入参数变化相关的不确定性的95%置信区间。考虑到关键输入参数的不确定性，世纪预测的区域SOC估算结果在东北丘陵地区是可靠的。1980年、2010年和2050年的SOC储量估计为0.99、0.88和0.87 Pg C，95%置信区间分别为0.69 - 1.31、0.66 - 1.11和0.69 - 1.07 Pg C。1980 - 2010年，东北高地土壤作为碳源，净降低了106（9-207）Tg C.土壤有机碳流失主要发生在有机碳含量较高的地区（黑龙江省和吉林省东部）。然而，假设管理不变，中国东北地区的高地是否会作为一个碳汇/源在未来40年仍然是不确定的。最有影响力的输入参数（初始SOC含量和粘土含量）的信息收集是至关重要的，以减少不确定性，并为决策者提供有意义的信息。
Process-based models have been successfully applied to predict long-term changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) at plot scales, but considerable uncertainties are still introduced into regional or national extrapolations due to the lack of spatially explicit information on the model input parameters. Using the CENTURY model we predicted SOC changes in the uplands of Northeast China during the period from 1980 to 2050 and provided 95% confidence intervals regarding the uncertainties associated with variability in the key input parameters. Regional SOC estimation predicted by CENTURY was reliable for the uplands of Northeast China when considering the uncertainty associated with heterogeneous key input parameters. SOC stocks were estimated to be 0.99, 0.88 and 0.87 Pg C in 1980, 2010 and 2050, with 95% confidence intervals ranging from 0.69 to 1.31, 0.66 to 1.11, and 0.69 to 1.07 Pg C, respectively. Overall, the upland soils of Northeast China functioned as a carbon source from 1980 to 2010, with a net decrease of 106 (9–207) Tg C. The SOC losses mainly occurred where SOC contents were high (Heilongjiang Province and eastern Jilin Province). However, assuming unchanged management, whether the uplands of Northeast China will serve as a carbon sink/source over the next 40 years remains uncertain. Information collection on the most influential input parameters (the initial SOC content and clay content) is critical to reduce uncertainty and to provide meaningful information for decision makers.
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