Weather-induced economic damage to upland crops and the impact on farmer household income in Northeast Thailand
Weather-induced economic damage to upland crops and the impact on farmer household income in Northeast Thailand
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天气对泰国东北部旱地作物造成的经济损失及其对农民家庭收入的影响
DOI：
10.1007/s10333-019-00729-y
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Janjirauttikul Naruekamon
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yoshida Koshi;Srisutham Mallika;Sritumboon Supranee;Suanburi Desell;Janjirauttikul Naruekamon
在泰国，气候变化直接影响到粮食和农产品的出口，而这是该国的主要收入来源之一。此外，农业是当地农民的主要收入基础，特别是在泰国东北部，灌溉农业用地的比例仅为7.6%，其他土地都被砍伐，气候变化使农业生产越来越不稳定，对农村地区的社会和经济造成严重损害。在这项研究中，我们专注于气候引起的高地作物，如甘蔗和木薯的经济损失。首先，利用气象资料和农业统计资料，通过相关分析，评价了季节降雨量和降雨格局对高地作物产量的影响。甘蔗产量与4个月累积降雨量呈显著正相关。木薯产量与5个月累积降雨量呈显著负相关。其次，进行了家庭调查，以掌握农民用水、耕作、收入平衡等情况，家庭平均收入为341 160铢/年，其中122 433铢/年来自农业，218 727铢/年来自非农业工作。利用访谈结果评价了各省因作物变化而引起的农民收入变化。就农民生计而言，应避免单一耕作制度，因为这种制度通常风险很高，而且很脆弱。分析结果表明，无论是在洪涝年还是干旱年，都建议甘蔗和木薯混种，以稳定农民收入。
In Thailand, climate change has a direct effect on the export of food and agricultural products, which is one of the main revenue sources of the country. Furthermore, agriculture is the main income basis of local farmers; especially, in Northeast Thailand, the ratio of irrigated agricultural land was only 7.6%, and others were rainfed so that climate change makes agricultural production increasingly unstable and inflicts serious damages on the societies and economies of rural areas. In this study, we focused on weather-induced economic damages of upland crops, such as sugarcane and cassava. Firstly, we evaluated the effect of the seasonal rainfall amount and pattern on upland crop yields through correlation analysis using meteorological and agricultural statistical data. The sugarcane yield had a significant positive relationship with 4 months of accumulated rainfall. The cassava yield had a significant negative relationship with 5 months of accumulated rainfall. Secondly, a household survey was conducted to grasp the farmers’ conditions of water use, cultivation, income balance, etc. The average household income was 341,160 Baht/year, 122,433 Baht/year derived from agriculture and 218,727 Baht/year from non-agricultural work. The variation in farmers’ income in each province by crop changing was evaluated using interview results. For farmers’ livelihood, a monoculture system should be avoided because of the system’s normally high risk and its vulnerability. As a result of analysis, mixed farming of sugarcane and cassava is recommended to stabilize farming incomes both in flood and in drought years.