Monthly variations of groundwater arsenic risk under future climate scenarios in 2081–2100
Monthly variations of groundwater arsenic risk under future climate scenarios in 2081–2100
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DOI：
10.1007/s11356-023-30965-z
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发表时间：
2023-11
影响因子：
5.8
通讯作者：
Binggan Wei;Shuhui Yin;Jiangping Yu;Linsheng Yang;Qiqian Wen;Ting Wang;Xing Yuan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Binggan Wei;Shuhui Yin;Jiangping Yu;Linsheng Yang;Qiqian Wen;Ting Wang;Xing Yuan
浅层地下水砷的季节性变化已被广泛记录。为揭示不同气候情景下地下水高砷及其暴露风险的月变化规律和机制，采用随机森林模型模拟了河套盆地地下水高砷的月发生概率。该模型基于从566个地下水采样点获得的砷浓度，考虑的变量包括土壤性质、气候、地形和地貌参数。结果表明，在不同的未来气候情景下，高地下水砷的空间分布在月间表现出一定的波动性。高的总砷和三价砷的概率被认为是在雨季开始升高，只有迅速下降，随着降水量和温度的增加。雨季过后，这种可能性再次增加。2019年，SSP 126下总砷和三价砷高概率和砷暴露风险增加的地区通常出现在高砷地区，而概率降低的地区则出现在低砷地区。在SSP585下，降水量和温度显著增加，总砷和三价砷高的可能性和砷暴露风险大大降低。然而，从SSP 126到SSP 585，高总砷和高三价砷的可能性和砷暴露风险主要出现在低砷区。总之，在未来气候情景下，由于高砷暴露，人类和牲畜饮用地下水的消费仍然对人类健康构成威胁。
The seasonal variations of shallow groundwater arsenic have been widely documented. To gain insight into the monthly variations and mechanisms behind high groundwater arsenic and arsenic exposure risk in different climate scenarios, the monthly probability of high groundwater arsenic in Hetao Basin was simulated through random forest model. The model was based on arsenic concentrations obtained from 566 groundwater sample sites, and the variables considered included soil properties, climate, topography, and landform parameters. The results revealed that spatial patterns of high groundwater arsenic showed some fluctuations among months under different future climate scenarios. The probability of high total arsenic and trivalent arsenic was found to be elevated at the start of the rainy season, only to rapidly decrease with increasing precipitation and temperature. The probability then increased again after the rainy season. The areas with an increased probability of high total arsenic and trivalent arsenic and arsenic exposure risk under SSP126 were typically found in the high-arsenic areas of 2019, while those with decreased probabilities were observed in low-arsenic areas. Under SSP585, which involves a significant increase in precipitation and temperature, the probability of high total arsenic and trivalent arsenic and arsenic exposure risk was widely reduced. However, the probability of high total arsenic and trivalent arsenic and arsenic exposure risk was mainly observed in low-arsenic areas from SSP126 to SSP585. In conclusion, the consumption of groundwater for human and livestock drinking remains a threat to human health due to high arsenic exposure under future climate scenarios.