Patterns in Epidemiology of Sexually Transmitted Diseases in Human Populations
Patterns in Epidemiology of Sexually Transmitted Diseases in Human Populations
复制标题
人群中性传播疾病的流行病学模式
DOI：
10.1007/978-4-431-65958-7_22
复制
发表时间：
2003
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
M. Kakehashi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Kakehashi
传染病在宿主群体中传播时表现出许多有趣的模式。特别是关于人口中传染病的详细数据。许多典型的儿童传染病，如麻疹和风疹，具有明显的季节性，周期为一年[2，7，8，9，12]。除了这种年度模式外，它们还表现出周期性，周期超过一年，例如，两年、五年等。同一疾病的周期在不同的地方可能不同，在某些地方可能存在混乱的模式而不是周期性模式。把焦点从这些儿童疾病转移到成年或青少年疾病，性传播疾病（以下简称性病）也有有趣的模式，尽管它们不能像儿童疾病那样被清楚地观察到。在大多数图案形成的研究中，一些有趣的图案被生成为类似于其他先前图案的阴影。在对性病的分析中，我们可能会发现在明显观察到的模式背后存在更感兴趣的模式的情况。通过分析性病发病率的模式，我们可以发现人类性行为的模式，虽然问卷调查有时可以揭示它的细节，但这些模式通常是隐藏的。有些性病的模式与儿童传染病是共同的。在传播初期，受感染人数呈指数级增长。另一个典型的模式是根据宿主的年龄观察到的发病率。下面我们首先简要介绍日本的性病流行病学。资料来源于1999年泌尿科、皮肤科、妇产科门诊病人。在回顾了流行病学中观察到的一些模式之后，我们试图用传染病的数学模型来解释这些模式。
Infectious diseases exhibit a lot of interesting patterns when they spread in host populations. Detailed data are especially available on infectious diseases in human populations. Many typical infectious diseases of childhood, like measles and rubella, show clear seasonality with period of one year [2, 7, 8, 9, 12]. In addition to such annual patterns, they also show periodicity with period more than one year, eg., two years, five years, etc. The period of the same disease may be different in different places and in some places there may be chaotic patterns rather than periodic patterns. Moving focus from such childhood diseases to those of adulthood or adolescents, sexually transmitted diseases (or STDs for short, hereafter) also have interesting patterns although they cannot be clearly observed like childhood diseases. In most studies of pattern formation, some interesting pattern is generated similar to a shadow of some other preceding pattern. In the analysis of STDs, we may find cases where a pattern of more interest exists behind the apparently observed pattern. By the analysis of patterns observed in incidences of STDs, we can find patterns of human sexual behavior, the detail of which is usually hidden although questionnaire surveys can sometimes shed light on it. Some patterns of STDs are common to infectious diseases of childhood. The growth of the number of infected people is exponential at the beginning phase of spread. Another typical pattern is one observed in incidences according to the age of hosts. We first briefly show descriptive epidemiology of STDs in Japan below. The data are collected on the outpatients who visited urological, dermatological, obstetric or gynecological clinics in 1999. After reviewing some observed patterns in epidemiology, we try to explain these patterns by mathematical models of infectious diseases.