Ensemble2: Scenarios ensembling for communication and performance analysis.
Ensemble2: Scenarios ensembling for communication and performance analysis.
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Ensemble2：用于通信和性能分析的场景集成。
DOI：
10.1016/j.epidem.2024.100748
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发表时间：
2024
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Vespignani,Alessandro
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bay,Clara;St-Onge,Guillaume;Davis,JessicaT;Chinazzi,Matteo;Howerton,Emily;Lessler,Justin;Runge,MichaelC;Shea,Katriona;Truelove,Shaun;Viboud,Cecile;Vespignani,Alessandro
在整个COVID-19疫情期间，情景建模在塑造公共卫生政策的决策过程中发挥了至关重要的作用。与预测不同，情景预测依赖于对未来的具体假设，这些假设考虑到可能实现或可能不实现的不同的合理世界状态，并取决于政策干预、疫情前景的不可预测变化等。在这里，我们提出了一种新颖的整体程序，用于使用美国COVID-19场景建模中心（SMH）的结果评估大流行场景预测。通过为每个模型定义一个“情景集合”和模型集合，称为“Enhancement 2”，我们提供了一个潜在流行病结果的综合，我们用它来评估预测的性能，绕过了最合理的情景的识别。我们发现，总体而言，Encouragement 2模型是校准良好的，并提供更好的性能比个别模型的场景合奏。总体程序考虑了所有可能的结果，并强调了情景设计和有效沟通的重要性。情景集成方法可以扩展到任何情景设计策略，可能的改进包括加权情景和允许集成过程随着时间的推移而发展。
Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, scenario modeling played a crucial role in shaping the decision-making process of public health policies. Unlike forecasts, scenario projections rely on specific assumptions about the future that consider different plausible states-of-the-world that may or may not be realized and that depend on policy interventions, unpredictable changes in the epidemic outlook, etc. As a consequence, long-term scenario projections require different evaluation criteria than the ones used for traditional short-term epidemic forecasts. Here, we propose a novel ensemble procedure for assessing pandemic scenario projections using the results of the Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) for COVID-19 in the United States (US). By defining a “scenario ensemble” for each model and the ensemble of models, termed “Ensemble 2”, we provide a synthesis of potential epidemic outcomes, which we use to assess projections’ performance, bypassing the identification of the most plausible scenario. We find that overall the Ensemble 2 models are well-calibrated and provide better performance than the scenario ensemble of individual models. The ensemble procedure accounts for the full range of plausible outcomes and highlights the importance of scenario design and effective communication. The scenario ensembling approach can be extended to any scenario design strategy, with potential refinements including weighting scenarios and allowing the ensembling process to evolve over time.