Operational Forecasting of Wind-Generated Waves by Hurricane Isabel at NCEP*
Operational Forecasting of Wind-Generated Waves by Hurricane Isabel at NCEP*
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DOI：
10.1175/waf852.1
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发表时间：
2005-08
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
H. Tolman;J. Alves;Y. Chao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
H. Tolman;J. Alves;Y. Chao
摘要对美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)对伊莎贝尔飓风所产生的海况的预报模式的准确性进行了评估。使用分析的风场以及Jason-1高度计和15个系泊浮标的海浪观测，验证了北大西洋西部(WNA)和北大西洋飓风(NAH)的海浪模型。这两个模型都为伊莎贝尔在飓风登陆美国东海岸前几天提供了出色的指导。然而，在伊莎贝尔飓风的初始阶段，NAH模型的表现优于WNA模型，当时她是5级飓风。NAH模型在为远在伊莎贝尔登陆前到达美国海岸的涌浪系统提供指导方面也更加准确。虽然主要的模型缺陷可以归因于驱动风场的缺陷，但已经确定了几个潜在的波浪模型改进的领域。
Abstract The accuracy of the operational wave models at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) for sea states generated by Hurricane Isabel is assessed. The western North Atlantic (WNA) and the North Atlantic hurricane (NAH) wave models are validated using analyzed wind fields, and wave observations from the Jason-1 altimeter and from 15 moored buoys. Both models provided excellent guidance for Isabel in the days preceding landfall of the hurricane along the east coast of the United States. However, the NAH model outperforms the WNA model in the initial stages of Isabel, when she was a category 5 hurricane. The NAH model was also more accurate in providing guidance for the swell systems arriving at the U.S. coast well before landfall of Isabel. Although major model deficiencies can be attributed to shortcomings in the driving wind fields, several areas of potential wave model improvement have been identified.