Identifying the high-risk areas and associated meteorological factors of dengue transmission in Guangdong Province, China from 2005 to 2011
Identifying the high-risk areas and associated meteorological factors of dengue transmission in Guangdong Province, China from 2005 to 2011
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DOI：
10.1017/s0950268813001519
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发表时间：
2014-03-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Liu, Q.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fan, J.;Lin, H.;Liu, Q.
我们研究了广东省登革热（DF）的空间分布格局和气象驱动因素。计算2005年至2011年每个县DF的年发病率，并使用Moran's I统计量和超额风险图检查DF的地理分布模式。采用时间分层的病例交叉研究方法，探讨了东风与气象因子和南方涛动指数（SOI）的短期关系。DF高发区仅限于珠江三角洲地区和汉江三角洲地区，2005 - 2006年和2009 - 2011年DF的Moran's I分布显著。日蒸气压、平均和最低温度与DF风险增加相关。最高温度和SOI与DF传输呈负相关。广东省各区县DF患病风险呈非随机分布。气象因素可能是DF传播的重要预测因子。
We examined the spatial distribution pattern and meteorological drivers of dengue fever (DF) in Guangdong Province, China. Annual incidence of DF was calculated for each county between 2005 and 2011 and the geographical distribution pattern of DF was examined using Moran's I statistic and excess risk maps. A time-stratified case-crossover study was used to investigate the short-term relationship between DF and meteorological factors and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). High-epidemic DF areas were restricted to the Pearl River Delta region and the Han River Delta region, Moran's I of DF distribution was significant from 2005 to 2006 and from 2009 to 2011. Daily vapour pressure, mean and minimum temperatures were associated with increased DF risk. Maximum temperature and SOI were negatively associated with DF transmission. The risk of DF was non-randomly distributed in the counties in Guangdong Province. Meteorological factors could be important predictors of DF transmission.