Modeling Change in Perceptions about Sanction Threats: The Neglected Linkage in Deterrence Theory
Modeling Change in Perceptions about Sanction Threats: The Neglected Linkage in Deterrence Theory
复制标题
对制裁威胁认知变化进行建模：威慑理论中被忽视的联系
DOI：
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发表时间：
2004
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
R. Paternoster
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Greg Pogarsky;A. Piquero;R. Paternoster
威慑理论描述了一个罪犯决策的过程，这个过程由两个环节组成——一个是官方制裁和其他信息影响潜在罪犯对犯罪行为风险的认知，另一个是这种认知影响是否犯罪的决定。几十年来的实证研究几乎完全集中在后一种联系上，因此对威慑过程产生了不完整的描述。本文开发了一个模型，说明对制裁确定性的看法是如何根据个人参与犯罪活动及其后果（如果有的话）而改变的。该模型的含义是用来自美国东南部的1,530名高中生的多波小组调查的数据进行测试的。主要发现包括：新信息影响感知确定性的方式取决于新信息接收前的感知确定性水平，同伴犯罪的程度是决定感知制裁确定性随时间变化的最具影响力的因素之一。
Deterrence theory describes a process of offender decision making that consists of two linkages—one in which official sanctions and other information affect a would-be offender’s perceptions about the risks of criminal conduct, and another in which such perceptions influence the decision whether or not to offend. Decades worth of empirical research has concentrated virtually exclusively on this latter linkage, and in so doing, has produced an incomplete account of the deterrence process. This article develops a model of how perceptions of sanction certainty are modified in response to an individual’s involvement in criminal activity and the consequences (if any) therefrom. Implications of the model are tested with data from a multi-wave, panel survey of 1,530 high school students from the southeastern U.S. Key findings include: the manner in which new information affects perceived certainty depends on the level of perceived certainty before the new information is received, and the extent of peer offending was one of the most influential factors in determining change in perceived sanction certainty over time.