Analysis and prediction of reference evapotranspiration with climate change in Xiangjiang River Basin, China
Analysis and prediction of reference evapotranspiration with climate change in Xiangjiang River Basin, China
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中国湘江流域参考蒸散量随气候变化的分析与预测
DOI：
10.1016/j.wse.2015.11.002
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发表时间：
2015-01-01
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
Jie, Meng-xuan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tao, Xin-e;Chen, Hua;Jie, Meng-xuan
在水量平衡研究中，参考蒸散量（ET 0）常用于估算实际蒸散量。分析了湘江流域ET 0的空间分布和时间变化趋势。1961年至2010年期间的ET 0是使用粮农组织彭曼-蒙特斯（FAO P-M）方法根据历史气象数据计算的，而2011年至2100年期间的ET 0是根据两种排放情景下的耦合模式相互比较项目第5阶段（CMIP 5）输出结果缩小的，代表性浓度途径4.5和代表性浓度途径8.5（RCP 45和RCP 85），使用统计降尺度模型（SDSM）。采用距离加权反比法（IDW）和Mann-Kendall检验法分别对ET 0的空间分布和时间变化趋势进行分析。结果表明：（1）1961 ~ 2010年新疆北疆多年平均ET 0为1006.3mm，由于气候因子的高纬度和空间分布，新疆北疆的ET 0最低值出现在东北部，最高值出现在西北部; CMIP 5预测了RCP 45和RCP 85情景下2011 - 2100年ET 0的上升趋势。与参考期（1961 - 1990年）相比，在2011 - 2040年、2041 - 2070年和2071 - 2100年期间，在RCP 45情景下ET 0分别增加了9.8%、12.6%和15.6%，在RCP 85情景下ET 0分别增加了10.2%、19.1%和27.3%。在2011 - 2100年期间，RCP 85情景下的预计ET 0增加大于RCP 45情景下的预计ET 0增加。(C)2015年河海大学。制作和主办：Elsevier B. V.
Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is often used to estimate actual evapotranspiration in water balance studies. In this study, the present and future spatial distributions and temporal trends of ET0 in the Xiangjiang River Basin (XJRB) in China were analyzed. ET0 during the period from 1961 to 2010 was calculated with historical meteorological data using the FAO Penman-Monteith (FAO P-M) method, while ET0 during the period from 2011 to 2100 was downscaled from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) outputs under two emission scenarios, representative concentration pathway 4.5 and representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP45 and RCP85), using the statistical downscaling model (SDSM). The spatial distribution and temporal trend of ET0 were interpreted with the inverse distance weighted (IDW) method and Mann-Kendall test method, respectively. Results show that: (1) the mean annual ET0 of the XJRB is 1 006.3 mm during the period from 1961 to 2010, and the lowest and highest values are found in the northeast and northwest parts due to the high latitude and spatial distribution of climatic factors, respectively; (2) the SDSM performs well in simulating the present ET0 and can be used to predict the future ET0 in the XJRB; and (3) CMIP5 predicts upward trends in annual ET0 under the RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios during the period from 2011 to 2100. Compared with the reference period (1961e1990), ET0 increases by 9.8%, 12.6%, and 15.6% under the RCP45 scenario and 10.2%, 19.1%, and 27.3% under the RCP85 scenario during the periods from 2011 to 2040, from 2041 to 2070, and from 2071 to 2100, respectively. The predicted increasing ET0 under the RCP85 scenario is greater than that under the RCP45 scenario during the period from 2011 to 2100. (C) 2015 Hohai University. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V.