Post-heading heat stress and yield impact in winter wheat of China
Post-heading heat stress and yield impact in winter wheat of China
复制标题
中国冬小麦抽穗后热胁迫及产量影响
DOI：
10.1111/gcb.12442
复制
发表时间：
2014-02-01
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Asseng, Senthold
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu, Bing;Liu, Leilei;Asseng, Senthold
小麦对高温敏感，但高温的时空变异性及其对产量的影响往往不为人所知。利用历史气候和产量资料分析了中国小麦抽穗期和成熟期热胁迫的时空变异及其对产量的影响。根据中国小麦主产区166个测站近50年的实测最高气温资料，建立了几个热胁迫指数，用以定量分析小麦抽穗至成熟期的热强度、频率和持续时间。令人惊讶的是，热应力之间的抽穗和成熟更严重的一般较冷的北方小麦生长地区比一般温暖的南方地区的中国，因为抽穗时间延迟与低温在生长季节的早期和暴露的抽穗后阶段到温暖的一年中的一部分。近几十年来，我国大部分冬小麦主产区抽穗至成熟期的热胁迫程度都有所增加，但南方的热胁迫程度高于北方。在整个小麦产区，测得的籽粒产量与抽穗后热胁迫和平均温度之间的相关性在统计学上都是显著的，并解释了约29%的观测到的时空产量变异。热胁迫指数应考虑抽穗期至成熟期的热持续时间和热强度，以描述热胁迫与产量变异的相关性。由于热胁迫是产量损失的主要原因，而且预计未来热事件的数量将增加，因此量化热胁迫对小麦生产的未来影响并制定适当的适应和缓解策略对于制定中国和其他地区的粮食安全政策至关重要。
Wheat is sensitive to high temperatures, but the spatial and temporal variability of high temperature and its impact on yield are often not known. An analysis of historical climate and yield data was undertaken to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of heat stress between heading and maturity and its impact on wheat grain yield in China. Several heat stress indices were developed to quantify heat intensity, frequency, and duration between heading and maturity based on measured maximum temperature records of the last 50years from 166 stations in the main wheat-growing region of China. Surprisingly, heat stress between heading and maturity was more severe in the generally cooler northern wheat-growing regions than the generally warmer southern regions of China, because of the delayed time of heading with low temperatures during the earlier growing season and the exposure of the post-heading phase into the warmer part of the year. Heat stress between heading and maturity has increased in the last decades in most of the main winter wheat production areas of China, but the rate was higher in the south than in the north. The correlation between measured grain yields and post-heading heat stress and average temperature were statistically significant in the entire wheat-producing region, and explained about 29% of the observed spatial and temporal yield variability. A heat stress index considering the duration and intensity of heat between heading and maturity was required to describe the correlation of heat stress and yield variability. Because heat stress is a major cause of yield loss and the number of heat events is projected to increase in the future, quantifying the future impact of heat stress on wheat production and developing appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies are critical for developing food security policies in China and elsewhere.