Doubling of world population unlikely
Doubling of world population unlikely
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DOI：
10.1038/42935
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发表时间：
1997-06-19
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Scherbov, S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lutz, W;Sanderson, W;Scherbov, S
大多数进行人口预测的国家和国际机构都避免明确处理不确定性问题。通常情况下，他们提供一个单一的预测或一组低，中，高变量（1，2），只有很少他们给这些预测的概率解释。对特定工业化国家（主要是美国）的可能人口预测主要基于时间序列分析（3）。在全球一级，时间序列分析不适用，因为缺乏适当的数据，以及人口结构转型造成的结构不连续等概念上的原因（4-6）。在此，我们报告了一种新的概率方法，该方法利用了专家对生育率、死亡率和移徙趋势以及世界不同地区这些趋势的90%不确定性范围的意见。我们利用模拟技术得出了到2100年世界13个区域的人口规模和年龄结构的概率分布。除其他外，我们发现，世界人口在21世纪不翻一番的概率为三分之二。
Most national and international agencies producing population projections avoid addressing explicitly the issue of uncertainty. Typically, they provide either a single projection or a set of low, medium and high variants(1,2), and only very rarely do they give these projections a probabilistic interpretation. Probabilistic population projections have been developed for specific industrialized countries, mostly the United States, and are based largely on time-series analysis(3). On a global level, time-series analysis is not applicable because there is a lack of appropriate data, and for conceptual reasons such as the structural discontinuity caused by the demographic transition(4-6). Here we report on a new probabilistic approach that makes use of expert opinion on trends in fertility, mortality and migration, and on the 90 per cent uncertainty range of those trends in different parts of the world. We have used simulation techniques to derive probability distributions of population sizes and age structures for 13 regions of the world up to the year 2100. Among other things, we find that there is a probability of two-thirds that the world's population will not double in the twenty-first century.