SELF-FULFILLING PROPHECIES AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE
SELF-FULFILLING PROPHECIES AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE
复制标题
自我实现的预言和商业周期
DOI：
10.1017/s1365100597005051
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发表时间：
1997
影响因子：
0.9
通讯作者：
M. Woodford
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
R. Farmer;M. Woodford
我们证明了多个固定的理性预期均衡存在于卢卡斯的岛屿经济的一个版本。这些均衡的存在是由于两阶段代际模型中存在一组不确定的货币均衡。我们展示了如何通过随机化非平稳货币均衡来构建平稳的理性预期均衡。在我们的一些均衡中，一个正斜率的菲利普斯曲线存在，即使我们的经济不包含原始卢卡斯论文中的信号提取问题。我们的均衡是由信念索引的，并且是太阳黑子均衡存在的例子，其中分配可能在偏好、技术和禀赋相同的自然状态之间存在差异。我们的技术构建固定的太阳黑子平衡应该证明是有用的，在广泛的一类模型，其中存在一个不确定的固定平衡。
We demonstrate that multiple stationary rational-expectations equilibria exist in a version of Lucas's island economy. The existence of these equilibria follows from the fact that there is an indeterminate set of monetary equilibria in the two-period overlapping-generations model. We show how to construct stationary rational-expectations equilibria by randomizing over the set of nonstationary monetary equilibria. In some of our equilibria, a positively sloped Phillips curve exists even though our economy contains no signal-extraction problem as in the original Lucas paper. Our equilibria are indexed by beliefs and are examples of the existence of sunspot equilibria in which allocations may differ across states of nature for which preferences, technology, and endowments are identical. Our technique for constructing stationary sunspot equilibria should prove useful in a wide class of models in which an indeterminate stationary equilibrium exists.