Annual baseflow variations as influenced by climate variability and agricultural land use change in the Missouri River Basin
Annual baseflow variations as influenced by climate variability and agricultural land use change in the Missouri River Basin
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.05.055
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发表时间：
2017-08-01
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Moriasi, Daniel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ahiablame, Laurent;Sheshukov, Aleksey Y.;Moriasi, Daniel
密苏里河系统有很大的储水量，其中基流起着重要的作用。了解历史基流特征对气候和土地利用的影响对于密苏里河流域水资源的有效规划和管理至关重要。本研究评估了1950-2014年99个MORB最小扰动流域的基流和降水的统计趋势。定量分析了99个流域基流对气候变率和农业用地变化的弹性。用递归数字滤波方法从日流量记录中得到基流。结果表明，基流占总流量的38% ~ 80% （0 ~ 331 mm/年），平均为60%，表明北海道一半以上的流量来自基流。趋势分析表明，99个流域中有78个流域在研究期间降水增加，导致68个流域基流量显著增加1 ~ 3.9%。虽然本研究获得的基流变化是整个流域气候和土地利用变化共同作用的结果，但基流的上升趋势通常与流域降水增加和农业用地趋势一致。农用地利用增加导致流域年基流减少0 ~ 5.7%，但盆地东部基流随农用地利用增加而增加（0.1 ~ 2.0%）。总体而言，在研究期间，每增加1%的降水和增加1%的农业用地，分别导致基流增加1.5%和减少0.2%。这些结果完全取决于所使用数据的质量；然而，它们为气候和土地利用变化对美国大平原地区基流条件的相对影响提供了有用的见解。(C) 2017 Elsevier B.V.版权所有
The Missouri River system has a large water storage capacity, where baseflow plays an important role. Understanding historical baseflow characteristics with respect to climate and land use impacts is essential for effective planning and management of water resources in the Missouri River Basin (MORB). This study evaluated statistical trends in baseflow and precipitation for 99 MORB minimally disturbed watersheds during 1950-2014. Elasticity of baseflow to climate variability and agricultural land use change were quantified for the 99 studied watersheds. Baseflow was derived from daily streamflow records with a recursive digital filter method. The results showed that baseflow varied between 38 and 80% (0 and 331 mm/year) of total streamflow with an average of 60%, indicating that more than half of streamflow in the MORB is derived from baseflow. The trend analysis revealed that precipitation increased during the study period in 78 out of 99 watersheds, leading to 1-3.9% noticeable increase in baseflow for 68 of 99 watersheds. Although the changes in baseflow obtained in this study were a result of the combined effects of climate and land use change across the basin, upward trends in baseflow generally coincide with increased precipitation and agricultural land use trends in the basin. Agricultural land use increase mostly led to a 0-5.7% decrease in annual baseflow in the basin, except toward east of the basin where baseflow mostly increased with agricultural land use increase (0.1-2.0%). In general, a 1% increase in precipitation and a 1% increase in agricultural land use resulted in 1.5% increase and 0.2% decrease in base flow, respectively, during the study period. These results are entirely dependent on the quality of data used; however, they provide useful insight into the relative influence of climate and land use change on baseflow conditions in the Great Plains region of the USA. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.