Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Basic Concepts, Current Status, and Future Directions
Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Basic Concepts, Current Status, and Future Directions
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DOI：
10.1161/circulationaha.109.849166
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发表时间：
2010-04-20
期刊：
影响因子：
37.8
通讯作者：
Lloyd-Jones, Donald M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lloyd-Jones, Donald M.
风险评估一直是确定心血管疾病（CVD）风险因素、识别CVD风险新标志物、识别和评估潜在治疗目标以及提高CVD一级和二级预防治疗的成本效益实施的关键因素。随着2001年国家胆固醇教育计划成人治疗小组（ATP-III）第三次报告的出版，以及其他国家和国际机构的类似指南，2-5风险预测在心血管疾病预防领域发挥了核心作用。从那时起，人们进行了许多尝试来完善和改进风险评估方法。因此，需要对风险预测的历史和原则、其统计基础及其临床意义进行基本回顾，以帮助临床医生和研究人员理解正在采用的日益复杂的方法来完善心血管疾病风险预测。本系列的其他文章讨论了目前风险估计算法在临床预防实践中的应用、效用和效果。
The assessment of risk has been a key element in efforts to define risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD), to identify novel markers of risk for CVD, to identify and assess potential targets of therapy, and to enhance the cost-effective implementation of therapies for both primary and secondary prevention of CVD. With the publication of the Third Report of the National Cholesterol Education Program’s Adult Treatment Panel (ATP-III) 1 in 2001 and similar guidelines from other national and international bodies, 2–5 risk prediction assumed a central role in the field of CVD prevention. Since then, numerous attempts have been made to refine and improve risk assessment methods. A basic review of the history and principles of risk prediction, their statistical underpinnings, and their clinical implications is thus required to help clinicians and researchers understand the increasingly complex approaches being undertaken to refine CVD risk prediction. Other articles in this series address the current adoption, utility, and effect of risk estimation algorithms in clinical prevention practice.