Comparison of Different Tropical Cyclone Datasets in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean Based on the Statistical Analysis
Comparison of Different Tropical Cyclone Datasets in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean Based on the Statistical Analysis
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DOI：
10.1007/978-981-15-0291-0_161
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发表时间：
2019-09
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Wenjian Meng;Hai-jiang Liu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Wenjian Meng;Hai-jiang Liu
正确认识历史热带气旋的特征对于防灾减灾工作具有重要意义。利用现有数据进行统计分析是分析TC参数特征的有效方法。然而，不同机构提供的气旋数据集在内容和准确性方面有所不同。本研究对中国气象局（CMA）和日本气象厅（JMA）提供的1951-2017年西北太平洋热带气旋历史数据进行了比较，重点关注热带气旋频率、强度、轨迹和漂移速度。研究发现，1951年之后，年TC频率逐渐减少，而年平均最大持续风（MSW）在1977年之前减少，之后保持稳定。一般来说，JMA 提供的 MSW 值比 CMA 数据相对较大，但 CMA 比 JMA 提供更多的大震级 MSW 数据（对应超强台风）。经证实，1977年以后超强台风频率有所增加。使用最小海平面气压的统计研究被证明不能作为TC强度的合适代理。同时，由于数据处理方式不统一，1972-1987年TC位置的年平均差异较其他时期更大。 1951-2017年JMA的年平均漂移速度略大于CMA，但证实了类似的时间变化。 TC 漂移的主要方向是 WNW。对于西移的热带气旋，CMA 提供的概率密度比 JMA 更大，而对于东移的热带气旋，则出现相反的情况。考虑到不同数据集的TC参数确定时所采用的技术差异和数据处理方法的不统一，应谨慎使用1988年之前的数据，以避免得出误导性的结果。
Proper understanding of the characteristics of the historical tropical cyclones (TC) is of great importance for disaster prevention and mitigation efforts. Statistical analysis using existing data is an effective approach to analyze the characteristics of TC parameters. Nevertheless, different agencies provide different datasets of cyclones in terms of contents and accuracy. In this study, two historical datasets covering the period of 1951-2017 for the Northwestern Pacific Ocean TCs from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) are compared with the focus on TC frequency, intensity, track and drift velocity. It is found that annual TC frequency gradually decreases after 1951, whereas the annual average maximum sustained wind (MSW) decreases before 1977 and keeps stable afterward. In general, JMA provides relatively larger MSW values than CMA data, but CMA presents more large-magnitude MSW data (corresponding to super typhoon) than JMA. It is confirmed that the super typhoon frequency increases after 1977. Statistical study using the minimum sea level pressure is demonstrated to be not a suitable proxy for TC intensity. Meanwhile, the annual average difference in TC positions in 1972-1987 is larger than those of other periods owing to the non-uniform data processing approach. Annual average drift velocity of JMA is slightly larger than that of CMA in 1951-2017, but similar temporal variations are confirmed. The predominant TC drift direction is WNW. CMA provides larger probability density than JMA for the westward moving TC, whereas an opposite scenario occurs for the eastward moving TC. Taking into account the technical differences and non-uniform data processing approaches applied in determining TC parameters of different datasets, data before 1988 should be used with significant cautions to avoid obtaining the misleading results.