An Evacuation Decision Model based on perceived risk, social influence and behavioural uncertainty
An Evacuation Decision Model based on perceived risk, social influence and behavioural uncertainty
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DOI：
10.1016/j.simpat.2016.03.006
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发表时间：
2016-08-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Nilsson, Daniel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lovreglio, Ruggiero;Ronchi, Enrico;Nilsson, Daniel
在疏散的第一阶段，人们的行为会对到达安全地点所需的时间产生重大影响。这种行为在文献中被称为疏散前行为，并在许多不同的疏散场景中进行了研究。尽管有大量的研究，但在大多数现有的疏散模型中，这种行为的表示往往过于简化。本文旨在引入一种新的疏散决策模型，在考虑感知风险的情况下，在正常、调查和疏散三种可能状态中预测疏散人员的预疏散状态。所提出的模型假设疏散人员的感知风险受到几种环境和社会线索以及疏散人员的人口统计和个人特征的影响。行为不确定性的概念也包括在模型中，然后提供了一个公式来校准使用似然函数提出的模型。(C) 2016 Elsevier B.V.版权所有
The behaviour of people in the first stage of an evacuation can have a significant impact on the time required to reach a safe place. This behaviour is known in literature as pre-evacuation behaviour and it has been studied for many different evacuating scenarios. Despite the large number of studies, the representation of this behaviour is often oversimplified in most of the existing evacuation models. This paper aims to introduce a novel Evacuation Decision Model, allowing predicting the pre-evacuation state of an evacuee among three possible states (normal, investigation and evacuation) considering perceived risk for an evacuation scenario. The proposed model assumes that evacuees' perceived risk is affected by several environmental and social cues as well as by demographics and personal characteristics of evacuees. The concept of behavioural uncertainty is also included in the model and a formulation to calibrate the proposed model using a likelihood function is then provided. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.