Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs.
Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs.
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发表时间：
1973
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通讯作者：
L. Robert
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作者：
L. Robert
本文报告了一项基于来自18个国家1951-67年间的年度时间序列的实际产出-通货膨胀权衡的实证研究结果。这些数据是从以下假设的角度来考察的：平均实际产出水平在通货膨胀率的时间模式变化下是不变的，或者存在实际产出的“自然比率”。也就是说，我们关注的问题是：(I)自然利率理论是否导致产出-通胀关系的表达在计量经济学意义上对所有或大多数样本国家表现令人满意，(Ii)该理论对这种关系施加了哪些可检验的限制，以及(Iii)这些限制是否与最近的经验一致？由于“自然利率理论”一词指的是模型和语言发展的各种集合，因此勾勒出本文使用的特定版本的关键要素可能会有所帮助。第一个基本假设是，名义产出是由经济的总需求决定的，实际产出的划分和价格水平在很大程度上取决于劳动力和商品供应商的行为。第二，主导短期供应行为的部分“僵化”是由于供应商缺乏与其决策相关的一些价格信息。第三个假设是，对这些相关的、未观察到的价格的推断是根据经济的随机特征做出的最优(或“理性”)。正如我在其他地方(1972)所说的那样，沿着这些思路发展的理论不会对估计的菲利普斯曲线的系数或其他权衡的单方程表达式施加可检验的限制。例如，他们不会暗示货币工资的变化与具有单位系数的价格水平的变化有关，或者{“长期”(在通常的分布滞后意义上)菲利普斯曲线必须是垂直的。它们将(我们将在下面看到)将供应参数与支配需求转变的随机性质的参数联系起来。自然利率理论的含义以这种形式出现，这表明有人试图使用样本来测试它，比如本研究中使用的样本，在样本中展示了各种各样的总需求行为。在下一节中，将使用上面勾画的元素构建一个简单的聚合模型。第二节报告了基于这一模型的结果，随后进行了讨论和结论。
This paper reports the results of an empirical study of real output-inflation tradeoffs, based on annual time-series from eighteen countries over the years 1951-67. These data are examined from the point of view of the hypothesis that average real output levels are invariant under changes in the time pattern of the rate of inflation, or that there exists a "natural rate" of real output. That is, we are concerned with the questions (i) does the natural rate theory lead to expressions of the output-inflation relationship which perform satisfactorily in an econometric sense for all, or most, of the countries in the sample, (ii) what testable restrictions does the theory impose on this relationship, and (iii) are these restrictions consistent with recent experience? Since the term "'natural rate theory" refers to varied aggregation of models and verbal developments,' it may be helpful to sketch the key elements of the particular version used in this paper. The first essential presumption is that nominal output is determined on the aggregate demand side of the economy, with the division into real output and the price level largely dependent on the behavior of suppliers of labor and goods. The second is that the partial "rigidities" which dominate shortrun supply behavior result from suppliers' lack of information on some of the prices relevant to their decisions. The third presumption is that inferences on these relevant, unobserved prices are made optimally (or "rationally") in light of the stochastic character of the economy. As I have argued elsewhere (1972), theories developed along these lines will not place testable restrictions on the coefficients of estimated Phillips curves or other single equation expressions of the tradeoff. They will not, for example, imply that money wage changes are linked to price level changes with a unit coefficient, or that {"long-run"' (in the usual distributed lag sense) Phillips curves must be vertical. They will (as we shall see below) link supply parameters to parameters governing the stochastic nature of demand shifts. The fact that the implications of the natural rate theory come in this form suggests an attempt to test it using a sample, such as the one employed in this study, in which a wide variety of aggregate demand behavior is exhibited. In the following section, a simple aggregative model will be constructed using the elements sketched above. Results based on this model are reported in Section II, followed by a discussion and conclusions.