Assessment of the changes in the Etesians in the EURO‐CORDEX regional model projections
Assessment of the changes in the Etesians in the EURO‐CORDEX regional model projections
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EURO-CORDEX 区域模型预测中埃特西亚人变化的评估
DOI：
10.1002/joc.5872
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Y. Ezber
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Y. Ezber
在夏季的几个月里（6月、7月和8月），爱琴海和地中海东部（EM）持续吹着偏北的东风。本研究利用ECMWF ERA-中期再分析资料集（观测）和11个EURO-CORDEX区域气候模式（RCM）模拟，研究了当前时期（1981-2000年）埃特西斯人的7 - 8月（JA）特征，并使用相关的RCP8.5模拟评估了未来的变化。对地中海东部近地面纬向风分量（v10）的观测结果进行的分析表明，它的强度是主导模态，解释了总方差的43.6%，因为EOF 1的主成分（PC）时间序列与显示Etesian强度的指数具有非常高的相关性（r = 0.98）。涉及PC时间序列中的相反相位的复合分析表明，强大的Etesian开发高压发生在巴尔干半岛和黑海，这增加了爱琴海的赤道压力梯度。有些区域气候模式相当逼真地再现了气压系统及其相关的赤道风。然而，尽管水平分辨率较高，但这些模拟中的Etesian强度通常不如观测中的强度高。一般来说，由于爱琴海上空的气压梯度增加，预计未来埃特西斯人将变得更强。这一结果表明，已经吸引能源部门投资的该地区的风能潜力将在未来增加。
The northerly Etesian winds blow persistently over the Aegean Sea and eastern Mediterranean (EM) during summer months (June, July and August). This study investigates the July–August (JA) characteristics of the Etesians for a present time period (1981–2000) from both ECMWF ERA‐Interim Reanalysis data set (observations) and 11 EURO‐CORDEX regional climate model (RCM) simulations and assesses future changes using the associated RCP8.5 simulations. An EOF analysis applied to observations near surface meridional wind component (v10) over eastern Mediterranean demonstrates its strength as the leading mode, which explains 43.6% of the total variance, as the principal component (PC) time series of EOF1 has a very high correlation (r = 0.98) with an index showing the intensity of the Etesians. A composite analysis involving the opposite phases in the PC time series reveals that the strong Etesians develop when high pressure takes place towards Balkans and the Black Sea, which increases the meridional pressure gradient over the Aegean Sea. Some of the RCMs reproduce quite realistically pressure system and its associated Etesian winds. However, the intensity of the Etesians in these simulations is usually not as high as that in observations despite their higher horizontal resolutions. In general, the Etesians are projected to be stronger in the future periods as a result of the increasing pressure gradient over the Aegean Sea. This result suggests that the wind energy potential of the region that already attracts investment from the energy sector will increase in the future.
关于 RCM 捕获 Etesians 循环模式的能力
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
A. Toreti;J. Luterbacher;P. Zanis;E. Tyrlis;E. Xoplaki
通讯作者：
E. Xoplaki