Indian Ocean Dipole modulates the number of extreme rainfall events over India in a warming environment
Indian Ocean Dipole modulates the number of extreme rainfall events over India in a warming environment
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DOI：
10.2151/jmsj.86.245
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发表时间：
2008-02-01
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Rao, Suryachandra A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ajayamohan, R. S.;Rao, Suryachandra A.
这项研究表明，高分辨率的降雨数据表明，在过去几十年里，印度境内极端降雨事件的数量有所增加。印度中部越来越多的极端降雨事件背后的机制是重要的，因为这些强烈的降雨事件会导致洪水和对生活在该地区的4亿多人的生命财产造成相关损害。自然灾害风险热点分析预测，印度中部地区是印度次大陆最容易发生洪水的地区。在这里，我们提出了第一个证据，表明近几十年来印度中部的极端降雨事件受到赤道印度洋东南部较冷的海面温度异常的强烈调制。印度洋持续变暖的趋势，加上近几十年来印度洋偶极子年的增加，表明未来几年印度中部的极端降雨事件和相关灾害会更加频繁。
This study shows that high resolution rainfall data indicate an increase in number of extreme rainfall events over India in the last few decades. Unravelling the mechanism behind this increasing number of extreme rainfall events in central India is important as these intense rainfall events cause floods and related damage to the life and property of more than 400 million people living in this region. The natural disaster risk hotspots analysis projected the central Indian region as the most vulnerable region for floods in the Indian subcontinent. Here, we present first evidence that the extreme rainfall events in central India in recent decades are strongly modulated by cool sea surface temperature anomalies in the south-eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. The ongoing warming trend of the Indian Ocean coupled with the increase in the number of Indian Ocean Dipole years in recent decades suggests more frequent extreme rainfall events and related hazards in central India in forthcoming years.