Captured Countryside? Stability and Change in Sub-national Support for African Incumbent Parties
Captured Countryside? Stability and Change in Sub-national Support for African Incumbent Parties
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占领乡村？
DOI：
10.5129/001041518822263593
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
Catherine Boone
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Wahman;Catherine Boone
许多关于非洲选举的现有记录都假设选民的选举决定是基于高度稳定的种族分裂结构中的暗示和激励。然而，对非洲选举政治研究的一些新的贡献质疑了族裔-客户投票理论，并强调了投票选择的其他决定因素，如阶级、意识形态和绩效评估。然而，现有的研究没有涉及选举动态的地理层面。在本文中，我们通过研究7个非洲国家，28次选举和1900个议会选区的政府-反对派摇摆（GOS）投票，为这一文献做出了贡献。我们发现，GOS的可能性不同，从城市到农村，并在不同类型的农村选区。GOS在城市地区和人口稠密的农村地区更为常见，但在总统的家乡地区和人口稀少的农村地区则不太常见。结果表明，选举和投票动态因空间而异，即使在一个国家内也是如此。我们得出推论，政治和经济地理如何塑造自主投票选择和绩效相关投票的前景。（减）
Many existing accounts of African elections assume that voters base their electoral decisions on cues and incentives that are anchored in highly stable ethnic cleavage structures. Yet several newer contributions to the study of African electoral politics have questioned the ethno-clientelistic voting thesis and highlighted other determinants of vote choice, such as class, ideology and performance evaluation. Existing research has, however, not dealt with geographic dimensions of electoral dynamics. In this paper we contribute to this literature by studying Government-Opposition Swing (GOS) voting in 7 African countries, 28 elections and 1900 parliamentary constituencies. We show that the likelihood of GOS differs from urban to rural, and across different types of rural constituencies. GOS is significantly more common in urban areas and in highly populated rural areas, but significantly less common in the president’s home region and in sparsely populated rural regions. The results suggest that electoral and voting dynamics vary across space, even within a single country. We draw inferences about how political and economic geography shapes prospects for autonomous vote choice and performance-related voting. (Less)