Quantitative comparison of methods for predicting the arrival of coronal mass ejections at Earth based on multiview imaging
Quantitative comparison of methods for predicting the arrival of coronal mass ejections at Earth based on multiview imaging
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DOI：
10.1002/2013ja019205
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发表时间：
2013-11-01
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Wu, C. C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Colaninno, R. C.;Vourlidas, A.;Wu, C. C.
本文以2010年3月至2011年6月期间9次冲击地球的日冕物质抛射（CME）为样本，研究了6种预测日冕物质抛射（CME）到达时间（ToA）和速度的方法的性能。利用太阳-地球立体连接日冕和日球层观测卫星（SECCHI）和soholle大角度和光谱日冕仪（LASCO）的多视点成像数据连续跟踪日冕物质从太阳到近地。我们用梯度圆柱壳模型估计出每幅图像中cme的三维方向和高度，近似于200R。我们用六种不同的方法拟合得到的三维（去投影）高度和时间（HT）数据来推断CME在地球上的ToA和速度。我们将拟合结果与Windspacecraft的原位数据进行了比较。我们发现，在50R以上的高度进行简单的线性拟合，可以得到7次cme（78%）的ToA误差为6h。对于完整的样品，我们可以预测ToA在13h以内。这些结果比过去仅使用SOHO LASCO数据的CME到达时间方法改进了半天。我们得出的结论是，在日冕仪视场之外对日冕抛射锋面进行的日冕仪高度时间测量足以合理准确地预测它们的ToA。
We investigate the performance of six methods for predicting the coronal mass ejection (CME) time of arrival (ToA) and velocity at Earth using a sample of nine Earth-impacting CMEs between March 2010 and June 2011. The CMEs were tracked continuously from the Sun to near Earth in multiviewpoint imaging data from STEREOSun-Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation (SECCHI) and SOHOLarge Angle and Spectroscopic Coronagraph (LASCO). We use the Graduate Cylindrical Shell model to estimate the three-dimensional direction and height of the CMEs in every image out to approximate to 200R. We fit the derived three-dimensional (deprojected) height and time (HT) data with six different methods to extrapolate the CME ToA and velocity at Earth. We compare the fitting results with the in situ data from the Windspacecraft. We find that a simple linear fit above a height of 50R gives the ToA with an error 6h for seven (78%) of the CMEs. For the full sample, we are able to predict the ToA to within 13h. These results are a half day improvement over past CME arrival time methods that only used SOHO LASCO data. We conclude that heliographic height-time measurements of the CME front made away from the Sun-Earth line and beyond the coronagraphic field of view are sufficient for reasonably accurate predictions of their ToA.