Demonstration of a fully-coupled end-to-end model for small pelagic fish using sardine and anchovy in the California Current
Demonstration of a fully-coupled end-to-end model for small pelagic fish using sardine and anchovy in the California Current
复制标题
使用加州海流中的沙丁鱼和凤尾鱼演示小型中上层鱼类的完全耦合端到端模型
DOI：
10.1016/j.pocean.2015.01.012
复制
发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
4.1
通讯作者：
V. Agostini
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Rose;J. Fiechter;E. Curchitser;K. Hedstrom;M. Bernal;S. Creekmore;A. Haynie;S. Ito;S. Lluch;B. Megrey;C. Edwards;D. Checkley;T. Koslow;S. McClatchie;F. Werner;A. MacCall;V. Agostini
我们描述并记录了一个端到端的模型，在加州电流作为一个原则的证明，这种耦合模型可以开发和实施的鱼和沙丁鱼种群动态。端到端模型是三维的，时变的，和多物种，并包括四个耦合子模型：流体动力学，欧拉营养浮游植物浮游动物（NPZ），基于个人的全生命周期的沙丁鱼和沙丁鱼子模型，和基于代理的渔船队子模型。一种大致模仿长鳍金枪鱼的捕食者被列为食用沙丁鱼和沙丁鱼的个体。所有子模型都在ROMS开源社区模型中编码，并使用相同的分辨率空间网格，同时求解，以允许子模型之间的可能反馈。我们使用了一个超个人的方法，并解决了分布式内存并行计算机上的耦合模型，这两个创造了具有挑战性的，但可解决的簿记挑战。在插入完整的端到端模型之前，使用简化的网格分别校准了沙丁鱼和沙丁鱼的生长、死亡率、繁殖和运动以及渔船队子模型。对1959-2008年进行了历史模拟，并对后45年进行了分析。海表高度（SSH）和海表温度（SST）的历史模拟显示出强烈的水平梯度和多年尺度的时间振荡与各种气候指数（PDO，NPGO）相关，并且都显示出对ENSO变率的响应。模拟的浮游植物总量在强厄尔尼诺事件期间较低，在1999年强拉尼娜事件期间较高。这三个浮游动物群体一般对应于模拟总浮游植物的时空变化。模拟生物量的鱼和沙丁鱼的观测生物量的历史范围内，但预测的生物量表现出更少的年际变化。异常的年度生物量的鱼和沙丁鱼显示开关在20世纪90年代中期从鱼沙丁鱼的优势。模拟的平均体重和年龄的长度在几十年中没有太大变化，运动模式显示，沙丁鱼位于靠近海岸的地方，而沙丁鱼则更分散，离海岸更远。长鳍金枪鱼对鲱鱼和沙丁鱼的捕食集中在海岸附近的两个口袋里，靠近蒙特雷湾地区和门多西诺角的赤道方向。捕食死亡率从渔船集中沙丁鱼年龄-1和老年人位于靠近五个港口之一。我们证明了对一个完全耦合的端到端模型进行多年代际模拟是可行的，并且可以对一个模型进行模拟，该模型在与流体动力学相同的三维网格上跟踪单个鱼类和船只。我们在这里的重点是原理证明，我们的结果表明，我们解决了主要的技术，簿记和计算问题。我们讨论了下一步，以提高计算速度，并包括重要的生物学差异之间的鱼和沙丁鱼。在一篇配套论文（Fiechter等人，2015），我们进一步分析了历史模拟的背景下，已经提出了解释沙丁鱼和沙丁鱼周期的各种假设。
We describe and document an end-to-end model of anchovy and sardine population dynamics in the California Current as a proof of principle that such coupled models can be developed and implemented. The end-to-end model is 3-dimensional, time-varying, and multispecies, and consists of four coupled submodels: hydrodynamics, Eulerian nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton (NPZ), an individual-based full life cycle anchovy and sardine submodel, and an agent-based fishing fleet submodel. A predator roughly mimicking albacore was included as individuals that consumed anchovy and sardine. All submodels were coded within the ROMS open-source community model, and used the same resolution spatial grid and were all solved simultaneously to allow for possible feedbacks among the submodels. We used a super-individual approach and solved the coupled models on a distributed memory parallel computer, both of which created challenging but resolvable bookkeeping challenges. The anchovy and sardine growth, mortality, reproduction, and movement, and the fishing fleet submodel, were each calibrated using simplified grids before being inserted into the full end-to-end model. An historical simulation of 1959–2008 was performed, and the latter 45 years analyzed. Sea surface height (SSH) and sea surface temperature (SST) for the historical simulation showed strong horizontal gradients and multi-year scale temporal oscillations related to various climate indices (PDO, NPGO), and both showed responses to ENSO variability. Simulated total phytoplankton was lower during strong El Nino events and higher for the strong 1999 La Nina event. The three zooplankton groups generally corresponded to the spatial and temporal variation in simulated total phytoplankton. Simulated biomasses of anchovy and sardine were within the historical range of observed biomasses but predicted biomasses showed much less inter-annual variation. Anomalies of annual biomasses of anchovy and sardine showed a switch in the mid-1990s from anchovy to sardine dominance. Simulated averaged weights- and lengths-at-age did not vary much across decades, and movement patterns showed anchovy located close to the coast while sardine were more dispersed and farther offshore. Albacore predation on anchovy and sardine was concentrated near the coast in two pockets near the Monterey Bay area and equatorward of Cape Mendocino. Predation mortality from fishing boats was concentrated where sardine age-1 and older individuals were located close to one of the five ports. We demonstrated that it is feasible to perform multi-decadal simulations of a fully-coupled end-to-end model, and that this can be done for a model that follows individual fish and boats on the same 3-dimensional grid as the hydrodynamics. Our focus here was on proof of principle and our results showed that we solved the major technical, bookkeeping, and computational issues. We discuss the next steps to increase computational speed and to include important biological differences between anchovy and sardine. In a companion paper (Fiechter et al., 2015), we further analyze the historical simulation in the context of the various hypotheses that have been proposed to explain the sardine and anchovy cycles.
DOI：
10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.03.011
发表时间：
2009-02
期刊：
Journal of marine systems : journal of the European Association of Marine Sciences and Techniques
影响因子：
--
作者：
C. Stow;J. Jolliff;D. McGillicuddy;S. Doney;J. Icarus Allen;Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs;Kenneth A. Rose;P. Wallhead
通讯作者：
C. Stow;J. Jolliff;D. McGillicuddy;S. Doney;J. Icarus Allen;Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs;Kenneth A. Rose;P. Wallhead