How Much Can We Say about Site-Specific Cancer Radiation Risks?
How Much Can We Say about Site-Specific Cancer Radiation Risks?
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DOI：
10.1667/rr2024.1
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发表时间：
2010-12-01
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Gilbert, E. S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Preston, D. L.;Krestinina, L. Yu;Gilbert, E. S.
对Mayak工人和居住在Techa河沿着的人进行的研究表明，低剂量率辐射照射与固体癌症风险增加之间存在重大关联。使用这些队列的长期随访数据来描述特定类型癌症的辐射效应是有意义的;然而，特定地点风险估计的统计变异性很大。这项工作的目标是描述这种变异性，并提供贝叶斯调整的风险估计。我们假设，特定地点的估计可以被视为一个样本，从一些潜在的分布和使用贝叶斯方法来产生调整后的超额相对风险，每灰色估计在Mayak和Techa河队列。将调整的影响与原子弹幸存者的类似分析进行比较。对Mayak河和Techa河流域特定地点的风险估计存在很大的不确定性。未经调整的估计数从令人难以置信的大幅下降到大幅增加不等，其幅度大大超过了原子弹幸存者的情况。贝叶斯调整明显减少了Techa河和Mayak研究的特定地点估计数的范围。特定地点风险估计的极端可变性主要是由于超额病例数量很少。调整后的估计数为实际风险的变化提供了一个有用的视角。然而，需要更多的工作来解释调整后的估计数，扩展用于描述效应修改的方法，并更多地利用先验知识，使这些方法有用。(C)2010年，辐射研究学会
Studies of Mayak workers and people who lived along the Techa River have demonstrated significant associations between low-dose-rate radiation exposure and increased solid cancer risk. It is of interest to use the long-term follow-up data from these cohorts to describe radiation effects for specific types of cancer; however, statistical variability in the site-specific risk estimates is large. The goal of this work is to describe this variability and provide Bayesian adjusted risk estimates. We assume that the site-specific estimates can be viewed as a sample from some underlying distribution and use Bayesian methods to produce adjusted excess relative risk per gray estimates in the Mayak and Techa River cohorts. The impact of the adjustment is compared to that seen in similar analyses in the atomic bomb survivors. Site-specific risk estimates in the Mayak and Techa River cohorts have large uncertainties. Unadjusted estimates vary from implausibly large decreases to large increases, with a range that greatly exceeds that found in the A-bomb survivors. The Bayesian adjustment markedly reduced the range of the site-specific estimates for the Techa River and Mayak studies. The extreme variability in the site-specific risk estimates is largely a consequence of the small number of excess cases. The adjusted estimates provide a useful perspective on variation in the actual risks. However, additional work on interpretation of the adjusted estimates, extension of the methods used in describing effect modification, and making more use of prior knowledge is needed to make these methods useful. (C) 2010 by Radiation Research Society