Stochastic bio-economic model of bovine intramammary infection
Stochastic bio-economic model of bovine intramammary infection
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DOI：
10.1016/j.livsci.2009.02.019
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发表时间：
2009-09-01
影响因子：
1.8
通讯作者：
Hogeveen, H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Halasa, T.;Nielen, M.;Hogeveen, H.
尽管传播动态在乳房内感染 (IMI) 的发生中发挥着重要作用，但在之前用于估计 IMI 成本的模型中并未考虑到传播动态。所描述的生物经济模型包括病原体特异性 IMI 的群体内动态。该模型随机模拟了金黄色葡萄球菌、乳房链球菌、停乳链球菌和大肠杆菌 IMI，并在牛奶生产实行配额的情况下估算了 100 头奶牛群中这些 IMI 的成本。 Reed-Frost 模型用于金黄色葡萄球菌、乳房链球菌和停乳链球菌 IMI，Greenwood 模型用于大肠杆菌 IMI。针对临床和亚临床 IMI，对每种病原体进行了经济分析。模型中使用的参数基于文献，被认为是可信和有效的。所有病原体的临床和亚临床 IMI 年发病率中位数差异很大。金黄色葡萄球菌 IMI 的这种变异最大。 100 头奶牛群中由金黄色葡萄球菌引起的 IMI 年发病率为 0 至 88 例，临床 IMI 中位数为 5 例，第 5 和 95 百分位数为 0 至 36，亚临床 IMI 中位数为 7 例，第 5 和 95 百分位数为 0 至 52。因此，金黄色葡萄球菌 IMI 的平均年总净成本也有很大差异。临床 IMI 成本为（原文如此）1375，第 5 个和第 95 个百分位数为 0 至 4716，亚临床 IMI 成本为（原文如此）1219，第 5 个和第 95 个百分位数为 0 至 4030。4 种模拟病原体组合造成的平均年度净成本为 E 4896，变化范围为（原文如此）915 至（原文如此） 100 头奶牛群中共有 11,287 头奶牛。本研究开发的生物经济模型将用作研究病原体特异性 IMI 管理的经济影响的工具。 (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. 保留所有权利。
Although the dynamics of transmission play an important role in the occurrence of intramammary infection (IMI), they have not been considered in previous models used to estimate the cost of IMI. The bio-economic model described includes within-herd dynamics of pathogen-specific IMI. The model simulated Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus uberis, Streptococcus dysgalactiae, and Escherichia coli IMI stochastically and estimated the cost of these IMI in a herd of 100 dairy cows in a situation where a quota is applied to milk production. A Reed-Frost model was used for S. aureus, S. uberis, and S. dysgalactiae IMI and a Greenwood model for E coli IMI. Economic analysis was conducted per pathogen for clinical and subclinical IMI. The parameters used in the model were based on the literature and were deemed credible and valid. Median annual incidence of clinical and subclinical IMI for all pathogens varied considerably. This variation was greatest for S. aureus IMI. The annual incidence of IMI in a herd of 100 dairy cows caused by S. aureus varied between 0 and 88 cases, with a median of 5 cases and the 5th and 95th percentiles of 0 to 36 for clinical IMI, and a median of 7 cases with the 5th and 95th percentiles of 0 to 52 for subclinical IMI. In consequence, the average total annual net costs also varied widely for S. aureus IMI. Clinical IMI costs were (sic) 1375, with the 5th and 95th percentiles of 0 to 4716 and subclinical IMI costs were (sic) 1219, with the 5th and 95th percentiles of 0 to 4030. The average annual net cost due to the 4 simulated pathogens combined was E 4896 and varied from (sic) 915 to (sic) 11,287 in a herd of 100 dairy cows. The bio-economic model developed for this study will be utilized as a tool to investigate the economic impact of management of pathogen-specific IMI. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.