The business cycle implications of land financing in China

The business cycle implications of land financing in China
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中国土地融资对经济周期的影响

DOI:
10.1016/j.econmod.2014.12.033
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发表时间:
2015-04
期刊:
影响因子:
4.7
通讯作者:
Yan Zhao
Yan Zhao
中科院分区:
经济学2区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Guo Shen;Liu Lezeng;Yan Zhao

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在过去十年中,中国政府越来越依赖卖地收入来为公共支出提供资金。本文利用DSGE模型研究了土地融资对中国经济周期波动的影响。模拟结果表明,土地融资的总体效果是增加了12.6%的经济周期波动。然而,土地融资对商业周期波动的影响取决于对经济的冲击。本文的政策含义是,切断政府支出与土地销售之间的直接联系可以缓解商业周期波动。
In the past decade, the Chinese government was increasingly relying on revenues from land sales to finance the public spending. This paper examines the impacts of land financing on business cycle fluctuations in China in an estimated DSGE model. The simulation results indicate that the overall effect of land financing is to increase the business cycle fluctuations by 12.6%. However, the impacts of land financing on business cycle fluctuations depend on shocks hitting the economy. The policy implication of this paper is that cutting the direct linkage between the government expenditure and the land sales could mitigate the business cycle fluctuations.
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