Life-style services and yield from south-Swedish forests adaptively managed against the risk of wind damage: a simulation study
Life-style services and yield from south-Swedish forests adaptively managed against the risk of wind damage: a simulation study
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DOI：
10.1007/s10113-014-0687-8
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发表时间：
2015-12-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Blennow, Kristina
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Andersson, Mikael;Kellomaki, Seppo;Blennow, Kristina
我们使用综合建模方法估计了采用森林管理以减少气候变化下的风害风险对瑞典南部森林的生活方式服务和森林产量的影响。ECHAM5/CCLM模型被用来为A1B排放情景编制参考气候和气候变化情景。使用FinnFor模型，我们估计了气候变化情景对2001-2100年期间三个常见商业树种的地位指数的影响。调整后的地位指数被应用于使用森林时间机器模型的森林投影。用Winda-Gales模型计算了模拟未来森林状态下的风害概率。通过比较2001年和2051年引入适应措施的效果，模拟了增加森林所有者采取措施以适应气候变化的效果。这些适应性措施是在与利益攸关方协商后确定的。在模拟中，适应性制度导致产量普遍增加，狩猎潜力增加，需要进行的森林管理活动更多，尽管娱乐服务的其他方面减少了。净收益仍未受到大多数适应性森林管理制度的影响。这些模拟没有考虑到预测的风灾对森林状况的影响。如果森林所有者意识到风害风险增加，但他们的生活方式也面临风险，就必须在这些风险之间权衡适应措施。我们的结论是，调整森林管理以减少风灾风险可能会影响生活方式的服务。因此，这可能会影响适应瑞典南部日益增加的风灾风险的进程。
We estimated the effect of adapting forest management to reduce the risk of wind damage under climate change on life-style services and forest yield in a south-Swedish forest using an integrated modelling approach. The ECHAM5/CCLM models had been used to produce a reference climate and a climate change scenario for the A1B emission scenario. Using the FinnFor model we estimated the effect of the climate change scenario on the site index for three common commercial tree species for the period 2001-2100. The adjusted site index was applied in projections of the forest using the Forest Time Machine model. The WINDA-GALES model was used to calculate the probability of wind damage in simulated future states of the forest. Effects of increasing forest owner motivation to take measures to adapt to climate change were simulated by comparing the effects of introducing adaptive measures in years 2001 and 2051, respectively. These adaptive measures had been identified in consultation with stakeholders. In the simulations, adaptive regimes resulted in generally increased yield, increased hunting potential and a higher number of forest management operations to be carried out, although other aspects of recreation services were reduced. The net return remained unaffected by most of the adaptive forest management regimes. The simulations were made without accounting for effects of predicted wind damage on the states of the forest. Forest owners perceiving increased risk of wind damage but also risk to their life-style would have to balance adaptive measures between these risks. We conclude that adapting forest management to reduce the risk of wind damage may impact on life-style services. Hence, this may affect the process of adaptation to an increasing risk of wind damage in southern Sweden.