The effects of climatic fluctuations and extreme events on running water ecosystems.
The effects of climatic fluctuations and extreme events on running water ecosystems.
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DOI：
10.1098/rstb.2015.0274
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发表时间：
2016-05-19
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Pawar S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Woodward G;Bonada N;Brown LE;Death RG;Durance I;Gray C;Hladyz S;Ledger ME;Milner AM;Ormerod SJ;Thompson RM;Pawar S
大多数关于淡水环境变化影响的研究都集中在平均条件的增量变化上，而不是波动或极端事件，如热浪、寒流、干旱、洪水或野火，这些事件可能会产生更深远的后果。人们普遍预测，随着全球气候变化，这类事件的频率、强度和持续时间将增加，许多系统将暴露在最近历史上没有先例的条件下。我们提出了一个机制框架，预测环境波动对自来水生态系统的潜在影响，按比例放大波动的影响，从个人到整个生态系统。该框架需要整合四个关键组成部分：环境对个体代谢的影响，对波动物种相互作用的代谢和生物力学约束，当地食物网的组装动态，以及将元社区的动态映射到生态系统功能上。我们说明的框架，通过开发一个数学模型的环境波动动态组装食物网。我们强调（目前有限）新兴的见解和理论预测的经验证据。例如，得到广泛支持的关于环境波动影响的预测是：人均代谢需求高的物种，如食物网顶端的大型物种，高度脆弱;食物网网络结构简化，能量转移效率受损;相对于自下而上的食物网和生态系统进程调节，自上而下的恢复力和调节能力降低。最后，我们确定了需要解决的关键问题和挑战，以制定更准确和预测性的生物评估的波动的影响，和波动的影响，在一个越来越不确定的世界管理实践。
Most research on the effects of environmental change in freshwaters has focused on incremental changes in average conditions, rather than fluctuations or extreme events such as heatwaves, cold snaps, droughts, floods or wildfires, which may have even more profound consequences. Such events are commonly predicted to increase in frequency, intensity and duration with global climate change, with many systems being exposed to conditions with no recent historical precedent. We propose a mechanistic framework for predicting potential impacts of environmental fluctuations on running-water ecosystems by scaling up effects of fluctuations from individuals to entire ecosystems. This framework requires integration of four key components: effects of the environment on individual metabolism, metabolic and biomechanical constraints on fluctuating species interactions, assembly dynamics of local food webs, and mapping the dynamics of the meta-community onto ecosystem function. We illustrate the framework by developing a mathematical model of environmental fluctuations on dynamically assembling food webs. We highlight (currently limited) empirical evidence for emerging insights and theoretical predictions. For example, widely supported predictions about the effects of environmental fluctuations are: high vulnerability of species with high per capita metabolic demands such as large-bodied ones at the top of food webs; simplification of food web network structure and impaired energetic transfer efficiency; and reduced resilience and top-down relative to bottom-up regulation of food web and ecosystem processes. We conclude by identifying key questions and challenges that need to be addressed to develop more accurate and predictive bio-assessments of the effects of fluctuations, and implications of fluctuations for management practices in an increasingly uncertain world.