The Dynamic Structure of U.S.-China Trade
The Dynamic Structure of U.S.-China Trade
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中美贸易的动态结构
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.3371286
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发表时间：
2006
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Alexander B. Hammer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Alexander B. Hammer
本文的目的是确定中国对外部门的结构性发展，这些发展对中国对美国的巨大且不断增长的商品贸易顺差产生了重大影响。为了达到这一目的，本文将分解美国-中国的贸易流动是根据一系列独立和相互依存的标准进行的，使用的是美国国际贸易委员会（USITC）最近从中国官方来源获得的高度分类的1995-2004年海关数据。<br><br>这篇论文将作为美国国际贸易委员会关于中国过去十年贸易动态的众多研究成果中的第一篇。在本文发表后，已经安排了一个广泛的研究议程，其中包括与Judith Dean博士、Michael Ferrantino博士、Joanne Guth女士、Zhi Wang博士和我本人（均来自USITC）以及我们组织的学术合作者K.C.博士的合作研究。冯博士（加州大学圣克鲁斯分校）、刘遵义博士（斯坦福大学和香港中文大学）和姚顺利博士（北京大学）。朱迪思·迪恩博士的评论对于增加研究范围的结构、表达方法的清晰度和基本分析的精确性特别有用。<br><br>在本分析的第一部分中概述了中国与美国的商品贸易平衡之后，第二部分将确定双边贸易的结构发展<br>使用海关数据的独立分类来确定流量。具体而言，它将揭示通过一次分解一个因素的商品贸易流动而出现的模式，从所考虑公司的所有权结构开始，然后是它们的“关税制度”、“激励计划”，最后是所交易的货物类型。然后，第三部分将在这些调查结果的基础上，按照上文确定的具体公司标准，分解双边贸易中增长最快的产品类别的结构。通过构建这些产品驱动因素的多维轮廓，并将这些结果与中国对美国的整体贸易轮廓（以及其他已确定的产品贸易驱动因素）进行比较，我们将更深入地了解影响两国贸易流动的重要因素。然后，第四部分将确定中国最新对美出口和进口的单一最大多维贡献者。最后，本文的最后一部分将为后续研究提供建议。
The aim of this paper is to identify structural developments in China’s external sector that have significantly influenced that country’s large and growing merchandise trade surplus vis-a-vis the United States. To reach its objective, this paper will decompose U.S.-China trade flows according to a series of independent and interdependent criteria, using highly disaggregated 1995-2004 customs data that the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) recently acquired from official sources in China. <br><br>This paper will serve as the first of many USITC research products on the dynamics of China’s trade experience over the past decade. An extensive research agenda has already been scheduled to follow the publication of this paper, which will include collaborative research with Dr. Judith Dean, Dr. Michael Ferrantino, Ms. Joanne Guth, Dr. Zhi Wang, and myself (all from the USITC), as well as our organization’s academic collaborators Dr. K.C. Fung (UC Santa Cruz), Dr. Lawrence Lau (Stanford University and the Chinese University of Hong Kong), and Dr. Shunli Yao (Peking University). For this paper, the comments of Dr. Judith Dean were particularly useful in adding structure to the study’s scope, clarity to its method of presentation, and precision to its underlying analysis. <br><br>After providing an overview of China’s merchandise trade balance with the United States in Part I of this analysis, Part II will identify structural developments in bilateral trade<br>flows using independent classifications of the customs data. Specifically, it will expose patterns that have emerged by decomposing merchandise trade flows one factor at a time, starting with the ownership structure of the considered firms, then their “customs regime”, “incentive scheme”, and finally, the type of goods being traded. Part III will then build upon those findings by decomposing the structures of the fastest growing product categories in bilateral trade, according to the firm-specific criteria identified above. By constructing a multi-dimensional profile of these product drivers and comparing those results to the profile of China’s overall trade with the United States (as well as to other identified product trade drivers), we will gain deeper insight into the important factors that have influenced trade flows between the two countries. Part IV will then identify the single-greatest multi-dimensional contributor to China’s latest export and imports to/from the United States. Finally, the last part of this analysis will provide recommendations for subsequent research.