Deleveraging and Monetary Policy: Japan since the 1990s and the United States since 2007
Deleveraging and Monetary Policy: Japan since the 1990s and the United States since 2007
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去杠杆化与货币政策：20世纪90年代以来的日本和2007年以来的美国
DOI：
10.1257/jep.26.3.177
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
K. Ueda
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
K. Ueda
20世纪80年代末的日本和21世纪初的美国都经历了真实的房地产价格沿着股市估值高企的不可持续的繁荣，当泡沫破裂时，许多家庭和金融机构陷入了困境。这一经验的一个主要教训是，个别经济行为主体在出现严重金融失衡后试图去杠杆化，可能产生重大的负面宏观经济外部效应。以日本为例，资产价格下跌、金融不稳定和经济活动停滞之间形成了负反馈循环。这种负反馈循环有时被称为“日本化”。“日本的去杠杆化变得严重，因为负反馈循环在其发展的早期阶段没有得到控制。日本政府没有迅速采取行动，对因持有大量股票而遭受资本缓冲侵蚀的银行进行资本重组。因此，日本的银行只是缓慢地承认不良贷款，同时停止向有希望的新项目放贷。缓慢但旷日持久的资产出售导致资产价格长期下跌。非金融公司认为资产负债表的恶化是永久性的，并大幅削减支出。由于日本经济停滞不前，不良贷款总额比最初估计的要大得多。与日本相比，美国政策当局对2007年以来的金融危机反应更快。当然，他们从日本的经验中吸取了教训。然而，与日本金融部门相比，美国金融体系的市场基础性质也很重要。本文还表明，在金融危机和经济停滞的情况下，中央银行的快速反应可能比让日本化进程拖上数年更好。在经济疲软的情况下，利率已经很低，利率的零下限限制了央行进一步刺激经济的能力。此外，非常规货币政策措施通过降低风险溢价和长期与短期利率之间的利差发挥作用。然而，当经济长期停滞时，这些利差有下降到低水平的趋势，这就限制了这些措施的有效性。
Both Japan in the late 1980s and the U.S. in the mid-2000s experienced an unsustainable boom in real estate prices along with high stock market valuations, and when the bubble burst, many households and financial institutions found themselves in dire straits. One major lesson from this experience is that deleveraging attempts by individual economic agents in the aftermath of large financial imbalances can generate significant negative macroeconomic externalities. In Japan's case, a negative feedback loop developed among falling asset prices, financial instability, and stagnant economic activity. This negative feedback loop has sometimes been called "Japanization." Japan's deleveraging became serious because the negative feedback loop was not contained in its early stage of development. The Japanese government did not act promptly to recapitalize banks that were suffering from the erosion of their capital buffer due to their large holdings of stocks. As a result, Japan's banks only slowly recognized bad loans, while stopping lending to promising new projects. Slow, but protracted asset sales resulted in a long period of asse t price declines. Nonfinancial companies perceived the deterioration of their balance sheets as permanent and cut spending drastically. As Japan's economy stagnated, the total amount of bad loans turned out to be much larger than initially estimated. In contrast to Japan, U.S. policy authorities responded to the financial crisis since 2007 more quickly. Surely, they learned from Japan's experience. It is also important to recognize, however, that the market-based nature of the U.S. financial system, as compared to a Japanese financial sector. This paper also shows that a rapid response by a central bank in a situation of financial crisis and economic stagnation can be a better choice than allowing a process of Japanization to drag on for years. In a weak economy, interest rates are already very low and the zero lower bound on interest rates limits a central bank's ability to stimulate the economy further. Moreover , nonconventional monetary policy measures work by reducing risk premiums and spreads between long-term and short-term interest rates. However, when a long period of economic stagnation occurs, these spreads have a tendency to decline to low levels, which then limits the effectiveness of such measures.
为什么日本经济增长在“失去的十年”中放缓？
DOI：
--
发表时间：
--
期刊：
The Japanese Economic Review (forthcomig)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Fukao;Kyoji;Hyeog Ug Kwon
通讯作者：
Hyeog Ug Kwon