Can Firms See into the Future? Survey Evidence from Germany
Can Firms See into the Future? Survey Evidence from Germany
复制标题
企业能预见未来吗？
DOI：
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复制
发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Y. Pettinicchi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Baptiste Massenot;Y. Pettinicchi
本文通过对德国制造业的调查，提出了企业期望形成过程的新证据。首先，企业在业务改善后变得过于乐观，这与他们对经验的过度推断是一致的。其次，企业更多地推断其业务的改善，而不是恶化。第三，在商业周期的高峰（低谷）时，公司比平时更乐观（悲观），这表明他们没有预期到反转。第四，德国统一给西德产品的商业带来了积极的外生冲击。受冲击影响最积极的行业最初过度推断了过去的下行趋势，就像受影响较小的行业一样，因此未能预测到逆转。第五，更多过于乐观的公司随后报告了更大的库存和更低的利润，这表明预期错误会带来（机会）成本。第六，规模较大的老企业外推偏差较小，说明时间和资源可以缓解外推偏差。第七，预计业务会改善的公司往往也预计价格会上涨，这表明公司大多试图预测需求冲击，而不是供应冲击。总的来说，这些观察结果表明，企业在预测其活动变化和过度推断其经验方面的能力有限。
This paper presents new evidence on the expectation formation process of firms from a survey of the German manufacturing sector. First, firms become too optimistic after their business has improved, consistent with the over-extrapolation of their experience. Second, firms extrapolate improvements in their business more than deteriorations. Third, firms are more optimistic (pessimistic) than usual during business cycle peaks (troughs), suggesting that they do not anticipate reversals. Fourth, the German reunification provided a positive exogenous shock to the business of West German products. The industries most positively affected by the shock initially over-extrapolated the past downward trend just as much as the less affected industries, and thus failed to anticipate the reversal. Fifth, more overoptimistic firms subsequently report larger inventories and lower profits, suggesting that expectation errors entail (opportunity) costs. Sixth, older and larger firms show a smaller extrapolation bias, indicating that time and resources can alleviate the extrapolation bias. Seventh, firms that expect their business to improve tend to also expect their prices to increase, suggesting that firms mostly try to forecast demand shocks as opposed to supply shocks. Overall, these observations suggest that firms have a limited ability to anticipate changes in their activity and extrapolate their experience too much.
DOI：
10.1257/aer.103.3.570
发表时间：
2013-05
期刊：
The American economic review
影响因子：
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作者：
Beshears J;Choi JJ;Fuster A;Laibson D;Madrian BC
通讯作者：
Madrian BC
快与慢的思考：跨时间尺度的优化分解
DOI：
10.1109/cdc.2017.8263834
发表时间：
2017
期刊：
56th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control
影响因子：
--
作者：
Goel, Gautam;Chen, Niangjun;Wierman, Adam
通讯作者：
Wierman, Adam