Flood Hazard on the Rivers of the Baikal Region
Flood Hazard on the Rivers of the Baikal Region
复制标题
贝加尔湖地区河流的洪水灾害
DOI：
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
0.3
通讯作者：
N. Kichigina
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
N. Kichigina
通过对安加拉河、上莱纳河(包括维蒂姆河和奥列克马河)、下通古斯卡河(源头)、上阿穆尔河和贝加尔湖(包括整个赛伦加盆地)流域内的河流进行调查，得出了贝加尔河地区河流洪水风险的综合特征。估计了1985-2017年期间的主要洪灾指标：成因、复发、持续时间、洪灾面积和影响强度。通过相关分析和积分-微分曲线分析，揭示了河流径流特征变化对洪水风险的影响。对气候显著变化时期(1981~2014年)各测站洪水频率的变化进行了评价。根据洪水的双重性质(社会-经济和自然)，确定行政区级城市在空间范围内的洪水风险。已经确认，贝加尔州最危险的是伊尔库茨克州南部地区、布里亚蒂亚共和国和扎拜卡尔斯基克拉南部地区的降雨洪水。它们频率最高，洪灾面积和冲击力最大，其特点是破坏最大，受害者和疏散人数最多。与此同时，在观测到的枯水期的背景下，近年来测站的洪水频率与前一时期相比有所下降，南贝加尔河和塞伦加河流域的枯水期最为明显。
A comprehensive characterization of the flood hazard on the rivers of the Baikal region is presented, which was obtained by investigating the streams within the basins of the Angara, Upper Lena (with the Vitim and Olekma), Lower Tunguska (headwaters), Upper Amur and Lake Baikal (including the entire Selenga basin). The main flood indicators for the period 1985–2017 are estimated: the genesis, recurrence, duration, flooded area and the force of impact. The influence of changes in the river runoff characteristics on the flood risk is shown by results of correlation analysis and analysis of integro-differential curves. An assessment is made of the changes in the flood frequency at gauging stations during the period of pronounced climatic changes (from 1981 to 2014), compared with the earlier period. The flood hazard within the spatial context for municipalities in the rank of administrative districts is determined on the basis of the dual (socio-economic and natural) nature of floods. It has been confirmed that the most dangerous in the Baikal region are rainfall floods in the southern areas of Irkutsk oblast, the Republic of Buryatia and Zabaikalskii krai. They have the highest frequency, and the largest flooding areas and force of impact and are characterized by the greatest damage and by the largest number of victims and evacuated people. At the same time, the frequency of floods at gauging stations in recent years has decreased compared to the earlier period against the background of the observed low-water period, which is most pronounced on the rivers of South Baikal and in the Selenga river basin.