Nudging observed winds in the Arctic to quantify associated sea ice loss from 1979 to 2020
Nudging observed winds in the Arctic to quantify associated sea ice loss from 1979 to 2020
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DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-21-0893.1
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发表时间：
2022-07
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Q. Ding;A. Schweiger;Ian Baxter
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Q. Ding;A. Schweiger;Ian Baxter
在过去的几十年里，北极气候表现出显着的变化，其特征是强烈的泛北极变暖和大规模的风转向的反气旋异常集中在格陵兰岛和北冰洋。最近的研究表明，这种风的变化能够通过动力驱动的变暖、增湿和冰漂移效应使北极大气变暖并融化海冰。然而，以前的检查，这种联系缺乏一个能力，充分考虑海冰响应风的变化的复杂性。在这项研究中，我们使用一个耦合的高分辨率建模框架与观测到的风轻推在北极，允许这些风引起的影响与观测和人为强迫的模拟效果进行比较，这一想法进行了更严格的测试。我们的nudging模拟可以很好地捕捉观测到的北极夏季大气温度，海冰和辐射平衡的变化，似乎模拟了整个时期（1979-2020年）北极变暖和海冰融化的30%左右，2000年至2012年期间超过50%，这是卫星时代北极变暖最快的十年。特别是，在2020年夏季，类似的风型再次出现，导致海冰范围达到1979年以来的第二低水平，这表明北极的大规模风变化对于在年际和年代际时间尺度上塑造北极气候至关重要，并且可能对确定未来几十年北极气候变率至关重要。
Over the past decades, Arctic climate has exhibited significant changes characterized by strong Pan-Arctic warming and a large scale wind shift trending toward an anticyclonic anomaly centered over Greenland and the Arctic ocean. Recent work has suggested that this wind change is able to warm the Arctic atmosphere and melt sea ice through dynamical-driven warming, moistening and ice drift effects. However, previous examination of this linkage lacks a capability to fully consider the complex nature of the sea ice response to the wind change. In this study, we perform a more rigorous test of this idea by using a coupled high-resolution modelling framework with observed winds nudged over the Arctic that allows for a comparison of these wind-induced effects with observations and simulated effects forced by anthropogenic forcing. Our nudging simulation can well capture observed variability of atmospheric temperature, sea ice and the radiation balance during the Arctic summer and appears to simulate around 30% of Arctic warming and sea ice melting over the whole period (1979-2020) and more than 50% over the period 2000 to 2012, which is the fastest Arctic warming decade in the satellite era. In particular, in the summer of 2020, a similar wind pattern reemerged to induce the second-lowest sea ice extent since 1979, suggesting that large scale wind changes in the Arctic is essential in shaping Arctic climate on interannual and interdecadal time scales and may be critical to determine Arctic climate variability in the coming decades.