PROJECTION OF FUTURE TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS BASED ON STATISTICAL MODEL
PROJECTION OF FUTURE TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS BASED ON STATISTICAL MODEL
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基于统计模型的未来热带气旋特征预测
DOI：
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
N. Mori
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
N. Mori
由于全球变暖，一些气候模型表明，到 21 世纪末，热带气旋的频率和强度将发生变化。本章前半部分对未来热带气旋特征和随机热带气旋模型进行了简要回顾。未来的热带气旋预测基于考虑了全球气候变化影响的随机热带气旋模型，本章后半部分讨论了热带气旋的平均和极端条件的分析。 TC 路径和强度的未来预测是通过随机热带气旋模型计算的，如本章后半部分所述。根据大气环流模型和随机热带气旋模型的分析，气旋发生频率的减少和路径的变化都对每年的热带气旋频率产生区域性影响。使用大气环流模型的平均统计特征来运行随机热带气旋模型，可以估计与这些未来热带气旋变化相关的不确定性。
As a consequence of global warming, several climate models suggest that the frequency and intensityof tropical cyclones will change by the end of the 21st century. A brief review of future tropical cyclone characteristics and stochastic tropical cyclone models is summarized in the first half of this chapter. Future tropical cyclone projections are based on stochastic tropical cyclone models with global climate change effects incorporated, and the analysis of the averaged and extreme conditions of tropical cyclones is discussed in the second half of this chapter. The future projection of TC tracks and intensities were computed by stochastic tropical cyclone models as discussed in the second half of this chapter. Based on the analysis of general circulation models and stochastic tropical cyclone models, both a decrease in cyclogenesis frequency and changes in track have regional impacts to annual tropical cyclone frequency. Using mean statistical characteristics from a general circulation model to run a stochastictropical cyclone model, it is possibleto estimate theuncertainty associated with these future tropical cyclone changes.