Identifying and Predicting the Geographical Distribution Patterns of Oncomelania hupensis
Identifying and Predicting the Geographical Distribution Patterns of Oncomelania hupensis
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钉螺地理分布模式的识别和预测
DOI：
10.3390/ijerph16122206
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发表时间：
2019-06-02
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Cui, Ying
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Niu, Yingnan;Li, Rendong;Cui, Ying
血吸虫病是热带和亚热带地区特有的一种由蜗牛传播的寄生虫病，其分布取决于气候和环境因素决定的蜗牛流行情况。利用一般统计、全球Moran’s I和标准差椭圆，量化了江汉平原重灾区巩安县钉螺分布的动态时空格局，利用Maxent模型，基于年平均气温、气候湿度、土壤类型、归一化植被指数、土地利用、沟渠密度等因素，预测了该地区钉螺适宜生境的分布。地表温度和数字高程模式变量；每个变量的贡献用折刀法进行了测试。出现了几个关键结果。(1) 2007 - 2012年，湖北钉螺覆盖面积变化不大，部分市、县、区呈增减交替变化，以沟渠和洼地为主要生境类型；②虽然空间自相关性较弱，变化可以忽略不计，但湖北钉螺生境区域存在显著的东西梯度。(3)恭安县21.9%的面积为钉螺高发区；沟槽密度、温度、海拔和湿润指数对其发生的影响最大。我们的研究结果和方法为中国血吸虫病的控制、监测和管理提供了有价值和及时的见解。
Schistosomiasis is a snail-borne parasitic disease endemic to the tropics and subtropics, whose distribution depends on snail prevalence as determined by climatic and environmental factors. Here, dynamic spatial and temporal patterns of Oncomelania hupensis distributions were quantified using general statistics, global Moran’s I, and standard deviation ellipses, with Maxent modeling used to predict the distribution of habitat areas suitable for this snail in Gong’an County, a severely affected region of Jianghan Plain, China, based on annual average temperature, humidity of the climate, soil type, normalized difference vegetation index, land use, ditch density, land surface temperature, and digital elevation model variables; each variable’s contribution was tested using the jackknife method. Several key results emerged. First, coverage area of O. hupensis had changed little from 2007 to 2012, with some cities, counties, and districts alternately increasing and decreasing, with ditch and bottomland being the main habitat types. Second, although it showed a weak spatial autocorrelation, changing negligibly, there was a significant east–west gradient in the O. hupensis habitat area. Third, 21.9% of Gong’an County’s area was at high risk of snail presence; and ditch density, temperature, elevation, and wetting index contributed most to their occurrence. Our findings and methods provide valuable and timely insight for the control, monitoring, and management of schistosomiasis in China.