Ensemble 1‐Year predictions of Arctic sea ice for the spring and summer of 2008
Ensemble 1‐Year predictions of Arctic sea ice for the spring and summer of 2008
复制标题
2008年春季和夏季北极海冰的一年期整体预测
DOI：
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Morison
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jinlun Zhang;M. Steele;R. Lindsay;A. Schweiger;J. Morison
使用冰-海洋模式对2008年春季和夏季的北极海冰进行了集合预报。集合是利用模式估计的2001-2007年的大气强迫和2007年9月的冰和海洋条件来构建的。预测结果表明，2007年夏季创纪录的低冰盖和异常温暖的海洋表层水域导致2008年冰层厚度大幅减少。据预测，2008年春季和夏季，加拿大盆地的大片地区冰层厚度将减少1.2米，导致2008年夏季冰层异常稀薄。北海航线和西北航道都有50%的可能性在2008年9月几乎不结冰。北极海冰面积不太可能像2007年那样再次急剧下降，除非出现与最近显著不同的新的大气强迫机制。
Ensemble predictions of arctic sea ice in spring and summer 2008 have been carried out using an ice‐ocean model. The ensemble is constructed by using atmospheric forcing from 2001 to 2007 and the September 2007 ice and ocean conditions estimated by the model. The prediction results show that the record low ice cover and the unusually warm ocean surface waters in summer 2007 lead to a substantial reduction in ice thickness in 2008. Up to 1.2 m ice thickness reduction is predicted in a large area of the Canada Basin in both spring and summer of 2008, leading to extraordinarily thin ice in summer 2008. There is a 50% chance that both the Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage will be nearly ice free in September 2008. It is not likely there will be another precipitous decline in arctic sea ice extent such as seen in 2007, unless a new atmospheric forcing regime, significantly different from the recent past, occurs.