The Effect of the 18.6-Year Lunar Nodal Cycle on Regional Sea-Level Rise Estimates
The Effect of the 18.6-Year Lunar Nodal Cycle on Regional Sea-Level Rise Estimates
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DOI：
10.2112/jcoastres-d-11-00169.1
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发表时间：
2012-03-01
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Wouters, Bert
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Baart, Fedor;van Gelder, Pieter H. A. J. M.;Wouters, Bert
巴特，F.；范·盖尔德 (Van Gelder)，P.H.A.J.M.；德隆德，J.； VAN KONINGSVELD, M. 和 WOUTERS, B.，2012。18.6 年月交点周期对区域海平面上升估计的影响。沿海研究杂志，28(2), 511-516。西棕榈滩（佛罗里达州），ISSN 0749-0208。海平面上升率已成为决策者长期保护沿海人口的重要驱动因素。情景研究表明海平面加速上升迫在眉睫。由于空间和时间的变化，预期的加速度很难检测，因此，这已成为重要的研究课题。已知的十年尺度变化是 18.6 年的交点周期。在这里，我们展示了未能考虑节点周期如何导致对荷兰海平面上升的高估。节点周期在全球范围内存在，其相位各不相同，中位振幅为 2.2 厘米。考虑节点周期增加了检测海平面上升速率加速的可能性。然而，在对荷兰海岸的分析中，仍然没有发现明显的加速度。交点周期导致海平面下降或加速上升；因此，准确估计区域海平面上升至关重要。
BAART, F.; VAN GELDER, P.H.A.J.M.; DE RONDE, J.; VAN KONINGSVELD, M., and WOUTERS, B., 2012. The effect of the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle on regional sea-level rise estimates. Journal of Coastal Research, 28(2), 511-516. West Palm Beach (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.Sea-level rise rates have become important drivers for policy makers dealing with the long-term protection of coastal populations. Scenario studies suggest that an acceleration in sea-level rise is imminent. The anticipated acceleration is hard to detect because of spatial and temporal variability, which consequently, have become important research topics. A known decadal-scale variation is the 18.6-year nodal cycle. Here, we show how failing to account for the nodal cycle resulted in an overestimation of Dutch sea-level rise. The nodal cycle is present across the globe with a varying phase and a median amplitude of 2.2 cm. Accounting for the nodal cycle increases the probability of detecting acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise. In an analysis of the Dutch coast, however, still no significant acceleration was found. The nodal cycle causes sea level to drop or to rise at an increased rate; therefore, accounting for it is crucial to accurately estimate regional sea-level rise.