Future energy potential of Miscanthus in Europe
Future energy potential of Miscanthus in Europe
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1757-1707.2009.01012.x
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发表时间：
2009-04-01
影响因子：
5.6
通讯作者：
Smith, Pete
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hastings, Astley;Clifton-Brown, John;Smith, Pete
欧洲的田间试验表明，芒属植物每公顷的能量产量在所有潜在的能源作物中是最高的。之前使用MISCANMOD的建模研究根据平均历史气候数据（1960-1990年）计算了欧盟27国的潜在能源产量。在本文中，我们已经建立了以前的研究，进一步开发了一个新的芒作物生长模型MISCANFOR，以分析（一）年际变化的产量为过去和未来的气候，（二）基因型特定的参数在欧洲的产量。在最近的气候条件下（1960-1990年），我们表明，10%的耕地可以产生1709 PJ和减少30 Tg的二氧化碳-碳（CO2-C）当量的温室气体（GHG）相比，欧盟27国一次能源消耗65 598 PJ，排放1048 Tg的CO2-C当量的GHG在2005年。MISCANFOR的研究表明，如果我们继续使用克隆的芒属植物，随着气候变化减少季节性水资源的可用性，到2080年，政府间气候变化专门委员会A2情景下的能源生产和碳减排可能会下降80%。然而，由于芒属植物在亚洲的气候范围很广，我们建议新的杂交种将包含赋予上级耐旱性和抗冻性的基因。使用特征种质的参数，我们计算出能源生产可以从目前的水平增加88%（至2360 PJ），并减少42 Tg的CO2-C当量使用10%的耕地为2080年中期A2情景。这相当于2005年欧盟27国一次能源消费的3.6%和二氧化碳当量C温室气体排放总量的4.0%。
European field experiments have demonstrated Miscanthus can produce some of the highest energy yields per hectare of all potential energy crops. Previous modelling studies using MISCANMOD have calculated the potential energy yield for the EU27 from mean historical climate data (1960-1990). In this paper, we have built on the previous studies by further developing a new Miscanthus crop growth model MISCANFOR in order to analyse (i) interannual variation in yields for past and future climates, (ii) genotype-specific parameters on yield in Europe. Under recent climatic conditions (1960-1990) we show that 10% of arable land could produce 1709 PJ and mitigate 30 Tg of carbon dioxide-carbon (CO2-C) equivalent greenhouse gasses (GHGs) compared with EU27 primary energy consumption of 65 598 PJ, emitting 1048 Tg of CO2-C equivalent GHGs in 2005. If we continue to use the clone Miscanthus x giganteus, MISCANFOR shows that, as climate change reduces in-season water availability, energy production and carbon mitigation could fall 80% by 2080 for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 scenario. However, because Miscanthus is found in a huge range of climates in Asia, we propose that new hybrids will incorporate genes conferring superior drought and frost tolerance. Using parameters from characterized germplasm, we calculate energy production could increase from present levels by 88% (to 2360 PJ) and mitigate 42 Tg of CO2-C equivalent using 10% arable land for the 2080 mid-range A2 scenario. This is equivalent to 3.6% of 2005 EU27 primary energy consumption and 4.0% of total CO2 equivalent C GHG emissions.